基于双重差分模型的碳减排效应  

Carbon Emission Reduction Effect Based on Double Difference Model

作　　者：王殿茹 李敏 WANG Dian-ru;LI Min(Natural Resource Asset Capital Research Center,Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang 050031,China;Hebei Province Mineral Resources Development and Management and the Transformation and Upgrading of Resources Industry Soft Science Resrarch Base,Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang 050031,China;Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang 050031,China)

机构地区：[1]河北地质大学自然资源资产资本研究中心,河北石家庄050031 [2]河北地质大学河北省矿产资源开发管理与资源型产业转型升级软科学研究基地,河北石家庄050031 [3]河北地质大学经济学院,河北石家庄050031

出　　处：《河北地质大学学报》2022年第4期104-109,共6页Journal of Hebei Geo University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(18BJY081);高校项目(20200401)。

摘　　要：绿色低碳理念成为人们共识,碳排放交易政策是中国降低二氧化碳排放量的重要措施之一,是实现双碳目标的至关重要的政策之一。文章基于中国30个省市在2006—2019年的面板数据,使用双重差分模型来研究碳交易试点政策对试点地区的碳减排效应,并使用平行趋势检验来提高结果的可信度。结果显示,碳排放权交易能够显著减少二氧化碳排放量,且平均每年减少30%;碳排放量的降低主要通过优化能源消费结构和区域产业结构的升级来实现。基于研究结论,建议从政府制定相关规章制度、促进区域产业结构高级化和优化能源消费结构等方面来减少二氧化碳的排放量。The concept of green low carbon has become a consensus.Carbon emissions trading policy is one of the important measures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in China and one of the most important policies to achieve the dual carbon goals.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2019,this paper uses the difference-in-difference model to study the effect of carbon trading pilot policies on carbon emission reduction in the pilot areas,and uses the parallel trend test to improve the credibility of the results.The results show that carbon emissions trading can significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions by an average annual reduction of 30 percent;the reduction of carbon emissions is mainly achieved by optimizing energy consumption structure and upgrading regional industrial structure.Based on the research conclusion,this paper suggests that the government should formulate relevant rules and regulations,promote the upgrading of regional industrial structure and optimize the energy consumption structure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

关 键 词：碳排放权交易政策 碳减排效应 双重差分模型 二氧化碳排放量 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]