基于空间计量分析安徽省冬小麦灾损风险的时空分布  

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Risk in Yield Losses for Winter Wheat in Anhui Province Based on Spatial Econometric Analysis

作　　者：徐慧 陈金华[2] 黄进[3] 张方敏[3] XU Hui;CHEN Jinhua;HUANG Jin;ZHANG Fangmin(Nanjing Research Institute of Ecology and Environmental Protection,Nanjing,210013,China;Rural Comprehensive Economic Information Center of Anhui Province/Anhui Agrometeorological Center,Hefei 230031,China;School of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]南京市生态环境保护科学研究院,南京210013 [2]安徽省农村综合经济信息中心(安徽省农业气象中心),合肥230031 [3]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,南京210044

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2022年第3期383-388,共6页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：科技部重大研发计划项目“多源气象资料融合技术研究与产品研制”(2018YFC1506606)。

摘　　要：安徽省是我国最重要的冬小麦生产省份之一,研究其灾损风险的时空变化对区域防灾减灾有着重要意义。依托74个区县1973—2014年冬小麦单产资料构建了气候减产率的逐年序列,采用空间计量分析与气候诊断探讨了灾损风险的时空分布特征。结果表明:(1)基于多年平均减产率,高灾损区域的空间分布呈现出明显的年代际变化,其中沿淮地区是安徽省冬小麦灾损的首要高风险区域;(2)基于重心迁移模型,1973—2014年灾损重心经度的年际变化呈现出强烈的短期振荡,而重心纬度则呈现出显著的减少趋势;(3)基于Mann-Kendall趋势检验与Hurst指数,1973—2014年安徽省北部的冬小麦灾损风险呈现出较强的下降趋势,而南部的灾损风险呈现出上升趋势,且未来短期仍将持续该趋势。总体而言,安徽省冬小麦灾损风险的时空演变呈现出显著的南北差异格局,其中南部将会是灾损的高风险区域。Anhui Province is one of the most important winter wheat producing provinces in China.To ensure regional disaster prevention and mitigation,it is of great significance to analyze the temporal and spatial changes in risk of yield losses in Anhui.Based on the the annual series of climate-driven yield reduction rate(CRYRR)resulted from wheat yield from 1973 to 2014 in 74 districts/counties,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics in risk of yield losses were analyzed by using spatial econometric analysis and climate diagnosis.The main results are as follows.(1)Based on the multi-annual average CRYRR,spatial distribution of the areas with high losses showed obvious interdecadal change,and the area along Huaihe River was identified as the dominant higher-risk area for yield losses.(2)Based on the barycenter migration model,the inter-annual variation of the barycenter longitude of yield losses showed a strong short-term oscillation during 1973—2014,while the barycenter latitude showed a significant decreasing trend.(3)Based on Mann-Kendall trend tests and Hurst index,risk in yield losses for winter wheat during 1973—2014 showed a stronger downward trend in north Anhui Province and showed an upward trend in southern Anhui Province,while the changing trends will continue the existing pattern.In general,the spatial and temporal evolution of risk in yield losses for winter wheat in Anhui Province showed the notable north-south difference,and the southern area will be the high-risk area of yield loss.

关 键 词：冬小麦 安徽省 灾损风险 时空分布 

分 类 号：S512[农业科学—作物学] S42