境外经贸合作区双边经贸效应分析——基于双重差分方法的检验  

Analysis of Bilateral Economic and Trade Effects of Overseas Economic and Trade Cooperation Zones——Based on the Difference-in-Differences Method Test

作　　者：李喆 冼国明[1] 李健 Li Zhe;Xian Guo-ming;Li Jian

机构地区：[1]南开大学跨国公司研究中心,天津300071 [2]北京印刷学院经济管理学院,北京102600

出　　处：《亚太经济》2022年第3期99-108,共10页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：天津社科规划项目“我国对外直接投资风险分析和预警制度研究”(JLJ18-003);南开大学亚洲研究中心课题“中国境外经贸合作区发展研究”(AS1808);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(63172004)。

摘　　要：境外经贸合作区是“一带一路”建设的重要抓手,评估其建设成效具有重要的现实意义。基于详尽的合作区名录,结合2006—2018年中国跨国投资和国际贸易的面板数据,利用双重差分方法分析合作区的双边经贸效应。研究表明,境外合作区整体上对中国和东道国之间的双向投资和双边贸易均产生了促进作用,其中对中国的对外直接投资、外商直接投资和出口的促进作用尤为显著。进一步研究发现,不同类型境外合作区的效应具有异质性,存在方向的区别和程度的差异,研究结论证明了境外合作区的重要性。Overseas economic and trade cooperation zones(OETCZ) are an important starting point for "the Belt and Road Initiative". It is of great practical significance to evaluate the effectiveness of its construction. Based on the list of OETCZ and the panel data of China’s transnational investment and international trade from 2006 to 2018, this paper analyzes the bilateral economic and trade effects of the OETCZ by using the Difference-in-Differences method.The results show that: the OETCZ has a significant promoting effect on bilateral investment and trade between China and the host country of the zones, the impacts on China’s OFDI, IFDI and exports are particularly significant. This paper further finds that the influence of different types of OETCZ is heterogeneous, with differences in direction and size. The empirical results of this paper prove the importance of the OETCZ.

关 键 词：境外经贸合作区 跨国投资 国际贸易 双重差分 倾向得分匹配 

分 类 号：F125.4[经济管理—世界经济]