RCEP对东亚区域价值链重构及两岸经贸合作的影响  

The Impact of RCEP on the Reconstruction of East Asian Regional Value Chain and the Cross-Strait Economic and Trade Cooperation

作　　者：周小柯 李保明[3] 时保国[4] Zhou Xiao-ke;Li Bao-ming;Shi Bao-guo

机构地区：[1]北京联合大学台湾研究院,北京100101 [2]北京市哲学社会科学决策咨询研究基地 [3]清华大学台湾研究院,北京100084 [4]中央民族大学经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《亚太经济》2022年第3期143-152,共10页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究青年基金项目“全球生产网络动态演进下两岸产业合作的转型升级”(17YJCGAT006);国家社科基金一般项目“全球价值链动态演进框架下两岸产业融合关系测度及深度合作研究”(20BGJ026)。

摘　　要：东亚区域价值链是两岸产业融入全球价值链的重要一环,RCEP正推动东亚区域价值链朝RCEP区域价值链发展,RCEP区域内经济体之间的合作质量将全面提升,台湾地区被边缘化的风险加剧,由此给两岸经贸合作既带来机遇,也带来挑战。在RCEP影响下,两岸产业链发展将呈现两个趋势:一是“三角贸易”模式的两岸产业链合作会相对下降,以融入大陆市场为依托的合作将相应提升;二是进入RCEP区域内价值链的全球价值链出口会得到提升,进入RCEP区域外的部分则相对下降。East Asian regional value chain is an important link for cross-strait industries to integrate into the global value chain. RCEP is promoting the development of East Asian regional value chain towards RCEP regional value chain, the cooperation quality among economies in RCEP will be comprehensively improved, and the risk of marginalization of Taiwan will be increased. These changes will bring both opportunities and challenges to the cross-strait economic and trade cooperation. Under the influence of RCEP, Taiwan businessmen tend to increase their investment in the Mainland, and part of the cross-strait trade will be replaced by the trade between the Mainland and other members of RCEP. The development of cross-strait industrial chain shows two trends: first, the cross-strait industrial chain cooperation in the "triangular trade" model will decline relatively, and the cooperation based on integration into the Mainland market will increase accordingly;Second, the export part of GVC integrated into RCEP regional value chain will be increased, while the part integrated outside RCEP region will be relatively decreased.

关 键 词：RCEP 东亚区域价值链 两岸经贸合作 影响分析 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]