页岩气开发中的成本估算问题分析  

Analysis of cost estimation in shale gas development

作　　者：郭瑞 刘辰星 GUO Rui;LIU Chenxing(CNOOC International Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100101,China;CNOOC Research Institute,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋石油国际有限公司,北京100101 [2]中海油研究总院,北京100101

出　　处：《中国矿业》2022年第7期44-48,64,共6页China Mining Magazine

摘　　要：页岩气资源量丰富,随着开采技术的进步和开采成本的降低,近年来受到人们的持续关注。因此,对影响页岩气开发经济效益的成本因素进行分析,有助于厘清成本的变动因素及变动规律,可作为页岩气开发经济评价的参考依据。本文对页岩气与常规天然气开发的异同进行了分析,找出页岩气开发的特殊性,并对页岩气开发成本项目进行分析,找出影响成本变化的关键动因;根据影响页岩气成本变动的关键因素及产量递减规律与学习效应,分别建立了基于产量、井数成本定额的成本估算法和基于产量递减规律、学习效应的操作成本估算法。成本定额估算法以较少的参数估算页岩气开发成本,在简化详细估算法的同时保证了估算结果的可靠性,操作成本估算法所构建的模型基于页岩气操作成本的变化规律,简单易用,重点在于确定合适的学习比率。研究结果表明,成本定额估算法结合分年工作量可有效估算各年开发成本,基于产量递减规律和学习效应的操作成本估算法可有效估算未来生产运营期的操作成本,成本估算结果可作为后续开展经济评价工作的依据,指导项目的投资决策。Shale gas resources are abundant, with the progress of mining technology and the reduction of mining costs, it has received continuous attention in recent years.Therefore, analyzing the cost factors that affect the economic benefits of shale gas development is helpful to clarify the changing factors and rules of cost, and can be used as a reference for the economic evaluation of shale gas development. This paper analyzes the similarities and differences between shale gas and conventional natural gas development, finds out the particularity of shale gas development, analyzes the cost items of shale gas development, and finds out the key drivers affecting cost changes. According to the key factors affecting shale gas cost change, production decline law and learning effect, the cost estimation method based on production and well number cost quota and the operation cost estimation method based on production decline law and learning effect are established respectively. The cost quota estimation method estimates the shale gas development cost with fewer parameters, which simplifies the detailed estimation method and ensures the reliability of the estimation results. The model constructed by the operation cost estimation method is based on the change law of shale gas operation cost, which is simple and easy to use, and the focus is to determine the appropriate learning ratio. The research results show that the cost quota estimation method combined with the annual workload can effectively estimate the development cost of each year, the operation cost estimation method based on the law of production decline and learning effect can effectively estimate the operation cost in the future production and operation period, and the cost estimation results can be used as the basis for subsequent economic evaluation and guide the investment decision-making of the project.

关 键 词：页岩气 成本动因 学习效应 成本估算 成本变动规律 

分 类 号：TE37[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]