CUACE模式对银川市区重污染天气预报效果检验  

Effect Test of CUACE Model on Heavy Pollution Weather Forecasting in Yinchuan City

作　　者：杨亚丽 王建英 赵蔚[1,2,3] Yang Yali;Wang Jianying;Zhao Wei(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions, CMA, Yinchuan 750002, China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Ningxia,Yinchuan 750002, China;Ningxia Meteorological Service Center, Yinchuan 750002, China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,宁夏银川750002 [2]宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,宁夏银川750002 [3]宁夏气象服务中心,宁夏银川750002

出　　处：《宁夏大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第2期215-219,224,共6页Journal of Ningxia University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室基金资助项目(CAMP-201909)。

摘　　要：基于中国气象局化学天气数值预报系统(CUACE)模式下2015年1月至2018年12月预报产品及同期实况监测资料,通过对比和分析,从4种污染物的质量浓度、首要污染物、AQI及其等级等方面,评估CUACE模式对银川市区重污染天气的预报性能.结果表明,CUACE模式能较好地模拟2015—2018年中度以上污染天气的AQI及PM_(2.5),PM_(10),O_(3)质量浓度的变化趋势,其中,AQI与O_(3)质量浓度的预报值偏小,NO_(2),PM_(10)质量浓度的预报值接近实测值;AQI与PM2.5,NO_(2),O_(3)质量浓度预报值与实测值之间的相关系数为0.48~0.70;实测AQI等级为4,5,6级时,表现出预报值偏小2级的概率较大、偏小1至3级的概率为20%~24%、偏小3级的概率为50%;首要污染物为颗粒物时,预报正确率为73.8%~75.0%,首要污染物为O_(3)时,预报的正确率较低.CUACE模式的整体预报效果较好,可为银川市区重污染天气的预报工作提供参考.Based on the forecast products under CUACE model from January 2015 to December 2018 and live monitoring data during the same period,this paper evaluates the forecast performance of CUACE model for heavy polluted weather in Yinchuan city in terms of four pollutant concentrations,primary pollutants,AQI and their levels through comparison and analysis.The results show that the CUACE model can better simulate the changing trends of AQI and PM_(2.5),PM_(10) and O_(3) mass concentrations in moderately polluted weather from 2015 to 2018,where the forecast values of AQI and O_(3) mass concentrations are small,and NO_(2) and PM_(10) mass concentrations close to the actual measured values.The correlation coefficient between the predicted value of AQI,PM2.5,NO_(2),and O_(3) mass concentration and the measured value is from 0.48 to 0.70;The measured AQI levels of 4,5,and 6 show a greater probability of a two level underestimation of the forecast value,a 20%to 24%probability of a one to three level underestimation,and a 50%probability of a three level underestimation;The forecast accuracy is from 73.8%to 75.0%when the primary pollutant is particulate matter,and the prediction accuracy is low when the primary pollutant is O_(3).The overall forecasting effect of CUACE model is good,which can provide technical guidance for forecasting heavy pollution weather in Yinchuan urban area.

关 键 词：大气污染 中国气象局化学天气数值预报系统(CUACE) 空气质量等级 首要污染物 

分 类 号：R122.7[医药卫生—环境卫生学] X131.1[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]