基于倾向值匹配的即时开放获取对论文引用和下载量的影响分析  

Analysis of the Immediate Open Access's Impact on the Citations and Downloads of Papers Based on Propensity Score Matching

作　　者：郭进京 黄奇[1] 盛姝 秦新国 Guo Jinjing;Huang Qi;Sheng Shu;Qin Xinguo(School of Information Management, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023;Information Office of Nanjing Audit University, Nanjing 211815)

机构地区：[1]南京大学信息管理学院,南京210023 [2]南京审计大学信息化办公室,南京211815

出　　处：《情报杂志》2022年第7期166-175,共10页Journal of Intelligence

摘　　要：[研究目的]开放获取与论文影响力有着密切关系,但现有的研究多是基于观察数据的简单比较,无法揭示开放获取对论文被引频次和下载量的真实影响,采用基于倾向值匹配的因果推断可以探究实际影响效应。[研究方法]以CNKI中收录的混合OA期刊《图书情报工作》2013—2019年发表的3890篇论文数据作为数据源,运用Stata分析工具,采用带卡尺的半径匹配方法检验即时OA对论文被引频次和论文下载量的影响并进行平衡性检验。[研究结论]检验结果均证实即时OA对论文被引频次和下载量的有着显著的促进作用,即时OA平均会将论文的被引频次和下载量分别提高2.89次和124.93次。建议通过基金资助支持、期刊向即时OA转变等方式推动论文即时OA发展,以提高文章的利用和影响力。[Research purpose]Open access has a close relationship with the influence of papers,but existing studies are mostly based on simple comparisons of observational data,which cannot reveal the real influence of open access on the cited frequency and downloads of papers,and using causal inference based on propensity score matching can explore the actual influence effect behind.[Research method]With using the 3890 papers published from 2013—2019 in the hybrid OA journal"Library and Information Service"indexed in CNKI and the Stata tool,the radius matching method with calipers was applied to examine the effect of immediate OA on the cited frequency and downloads of papers and to perform a balance test.[Research conclusion]The test results all confirm that immediate OA has a significant contribution to the citations and downloads of papers,and increases the citations and downloads of papers by an average of 2.89 and 124.93 respectively.It is suggested that the development of immediate OA for papers should be promoted through grant support and the shift of journals to immediate OA to improve the utilization and impact of articles.

关 键 词：倾向值匹配 开放获取 被引频次 被引率 下载量 因果分析 

分 类 号：G250.7[文化科学—图书馆学]