河南省沿黄区域土地利用时空变化及驱动因素分析  

Temporal and Spatial Changes and Driving Factors of Land Use along the Yellow River in Henan Province

作　　者：杜军[1] 邱士可[1] 王正 王景旭 刘纪平[2] 王超[1] DU Jun;QIU Shike;WANG Zheng;WANG Jingxu;LIU Jiping;WANG Chao(Institute of Geographical Sciences,Henan Academy of Sciences,Zhengzhou 450052,China;Chinese Academy of Surveying and Mapping,Beijing 100036,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省科学院地理研究所,郑州450052 [2]中国测绘科学研究院,北京100036

出　　处：《河南科学》2022年第6期922-930,共9页Henan Science

基　　金：河南省科技攻关项目(212102310024);河南省科学院科技智库研究项目(210701009);中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(211201004)。

摘　　要：以河南省沿黄区域为研究对象,基于1980—2020年共5期的土地利用数据,利用转移矩阵、动态度指标分析近40年来研究区土地利用时空变化特征.从自然因素、社会经济因素和可达性因素三个方面选取了9个因子,采用Logistic回归模型分析土地利用时空分布及变化的驱动因素.结果表明:河南省沿黄区域土地利用类型以耕地、林地为主,二者面积占比在75%~80%之间,耕地与建设用地、耕地与水域的转化比较剧烈,占耕地转出面积的比例分别为81.84%、12.36%,不同土地利用类型之间的转化强度逐渐增加.综合土地利用动态度由1980—2000年的0.06,显著升高到2000—2020年的0.24,建设用地的动态度达到了2.33,较1980—2000年间增加了近4倍.坡度、温度、高程等自然因子对耕地、林地空间分布及变化影响较大;高程和坡度是建设用地的负解释变量,每增加1个单位时,建设用地的分布概率分别降低1.01倍和1.06倍;社会经济因素的GDP和人口密度在一定程度上反映区域经济社会发展状况,是建设用地分布的正向决定因素.In the present study,the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use in the study area was analyzed based on five periods of land use data from 1980 to 2020,by using transfer matrix and dynamic attitude indicators.Nine sub-factors from natural,socio-economic and accessibility factors were utilized to analyze the driven factors of the spatial and temporal distribution changes in land use,by combining use the logistic regression models.The results indicated that:The arable land and forestland are the main land use types along the Yellow River in Henan Province,which accounting for 75%-80%of the total area.The transformation between arable land and construction land,between arable land and water body were the most dramatic during 1980-2020,accounting for 81.84%and 12.36%of the transferred arable land area,respectively.Besides,the intensity of conversion between different land use types gradually increased during the year from 1980 to 2020.The combined land use dynamic increases significantly from 0.06 in 1980-2000 to 0.24 in 2000-2020.Moreover,the dynamic of the construction land reaches to 2.33,which is nearly four times higher than that in 1980-2000.The results also show that natural factors such as slope,temperature,and elevation had a significant effect on the spatial distribution and change of arable and forestland.Elevation and slope are negative influence variables of construction land,and the probability of distribution of construction land decreases 1.01 times and 1.06 times respectively for each unit increase.Socio-economic factors of GDP and population density,which reflect the regional economic and social development to a certain extent,are positive influencing factors for the distribution of construction land.

关 键 词：河南省沿黄区域 土地利用 动态度 LOGISTIC回归模型 驱动力 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程] F301.24[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]