稳慎推进人民币国际化:目标定位与策略优化  

Steadily and Prudently Promoting RMB Internationalization:Goal Orientation and Strategies Optimization

作　　者：沙文兵[1] SHA Wenbing

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《国际商务研究》2022年第4期1-13,共13页International Business Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(项目批准号:16AJL012)。

摘　　要：人民币国际化路线图在2018年前后发生了明显转变,但两个阶段的路线图都蕴含着潜在金融风险。基于大国竞争与地缘政治关系、美元惯性、中美经济规模差距、国内金融市场发展水平、潜在收益与风险考量等多视角的分析表明,人民币国际化的目标定位应是货币正常化,而非成为主导性国际货币。为稳慎推进人民币国际化,从需求面来看,只有培育非居民对人民币的真实且持续的需求,才能避免人民币国际化对国内金融稳定的威胁,实现人民币国际化的可持续发展;从供给面来看,主要是培育发达的国内金融市场,实现金融市场的深化和广化,并提高其开放程度,以提升人民币对非居民的吸引力和可得性,降低与人民币国际化相关的金融风险。The road map of RMB internationalization changed significantly around 2018.However,the road map of both stages contains potential financial risks.Based on the multi perspective analysis of the competition between leading powers and geopolitical relations,the inertia of the US dollar,the economic size gap between China and the United States,the development level of domestic financial markets,potential benefits and risk considerations,the goal orientation of RMB internationalization should be currency normalization,rather than becoming a dominant international currency.In order to steadily and prudently promote the internationalization of RMB,from the demand side,only by cultivating the real and sustainable demand of non-residents for RMB,can we avoid the threat of RMB internationalization to domestic financial stability and realize the sustainable development of RMB internationalization;From the supply side,it is mainly to cultivate a developed domestic financial market,deepen and broaden the financial market,and improve its openness,so as to enhance the attraction and availability of RMB to non-residents and reduce the financial risks related to the internationalization of RMB.

关 键 词：人民币国际化 目标定位 需求面策略 供给面策略 

分 类 号：F830.2[经济管理—金融学]