汇率制度市场化改革的出口贸易效应研究——基于2005年人民币汇率制度改革的反事实检验  

A Study on the Export Trade Effect of Market-oriented Reform of Exchange Rate Regime:A Counterfactual Analysis Based on the RMB Exchange Rate Regime Reform in 2005

作　　者：颜银根 李安琪 YAN Yingen;LI Anqi

机构地区：[1]南京审计大学经济学院,江苏南京211815

出　　处：《国际商务研究》2022年第4期27-38,共12页International Business Research

基　　金：2021年江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目“人民币汇率制度改革对出口贸易的影响研究”(项目编号:SJCX21_0824)。

摘　　要：2005年汇率制度改革是中国汇率制度市场化改革中最具跨越性的改革,对中国加入WTO后出口贸易的持续增长具有重要意义。本文使用1995~2015年20个国家(地区)作为对照组,采用合成控制法进行反事实检验,量化研究了2005年人民币汇率制度市场化改革对中国出口贸易的效用,结果表明:2005年人民币由固定汇率制调整至浮动汇率制的市场化改革具有显著的正向出口贸易效应,使得中国出口技术复杂度提升了约1.83‰;且其作用具有异质性,汇改抑制了初级、资源型产品的出口,促进了中等和高技术产品出口技术复杂度的提升。汇率制度市场化改革是人民币国际化进程中的重要组成部分,同时有望推动中国出口贸易达成稳外贸的目标。As the most leapfrog reform of China’s market-oriented exchange rate reform,exchange rate regime reform in 2005 occupies a significant position in the continuous growth of China’s export trade after its accession to the WTO.Optimal control group is chosen by using 20 countries and regions from 1995 to 2015 and the synthetic control method is adopted for counterfactual analysis,this paper empirically evaluates the impact of the market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate regime in 2005 on China’s export trade.The evidence shows that:the market-oriented reform of the exchange rate regime from dollar peg to managed float has a significant positive effect on export trade,the growth rate of export technology complexity increased by about 1.83‰,and its effects are heterogeneous,which inhibites the export of primary products and resource-based products,and promotes the increase of the export technology complexity of medium and high-tech products.The market-oriented reform of the exchange rate regime is also an important part of the internationalization of the RMB;meanwhile,it is expected to promote China’s export trade to achieve the goal of stabilizing foreign trade.

关 键 词：汇率制度 市场化改革 出口贸易 稳外贸 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]