黄河流域粮食生产水足迹及虚拟水流动影响评价  

Evaluation of grain production water footprint and influence of grain virtual water flow in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：赵勇[1,2] 黄可静 高学睿 安婷莉[2] 何国华 姜珊[1] ZHAO Yong;HUANG Kejing;GAO Xuerui;AN Tingli;HE Guohua;JIANG Shan(Department of Water Resources,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [2]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100 [3]西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水资源保护》2022年第4期39-47,共9页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金(52025093);陕西省水利科技计划项目(2020slkj-9)。

摘　　要：为分析黄河流域粮食生产用水的可持续性,引入水足迹和虚拟水相关理论方法,对研究区主要粮食生产水足迹及粮食贸易伴生的虚拟水流动格局进行了量化解析,并对未来粮食生产水足迹进行了预估。结果表明:2011—2016年,全流域粮食生产总水足迹和单位水足迹分别由460亿m^(3)和1.20 m^(3)/kg降为402 m^(3)和0.93 m^(3)/kg,均呈下降趋势;从粮食贸易伴生的虚拟水流动特点来看,流域全口径粮食虚拟水从2011年的110.7亿m^(3)减小到2016年的50.3亿m^(3),呈输入态势;除稻谷之外的粮食虚拟水由82.6亿m^(3)增加到193.4亿m^(3),呈输出态势;在流域不同气候情景下,2035年粮食生产总水足迹为481.9亿~518.7亿m^(3),其中绿水足迹增幅达20%,而蓝水足迹增长不显著;未来流域内粮食输出量的增加会进一步加剧本地农业生产的用水矛盾,但粮食灌溉总用水量的增速可能放缓。To evaluate the sustainability of available water resources for grain production in the Yellow River Basin,the theory of water footprint and virtual water was introduced to quantitatively analyze the water footprint of grain production and virtual water flow pattern associated with grain trade in the Yellow River Basin and estimate future water footprint of grain production in this area.The results showed that the total water footprint of grain production in the whole basin decreased from 46.0 billion m^(3) to 40.2 billion m^(3) from 2011 to 2016,while water footprint per unit of grain production decreased from 1.20 m^(3)/kg to 0.93 m^(3)/kg.According to virtual water flow associated with grain trade,the full-caliber grain virtual water in the Yellow River Basin decreased from 11.07 billion m^(3) in 2011 to 5.03 billion m^(3) in 2016,indicating a trend of grain input,especially the input of rice.Virtual water flow of other grains except rice increased from 8.26 billion m^(3) to 19.34 billion m^(3),indicating a trend of other grain output.By 2035,the total water footprint of grain production is expected to be 48.19 billion m^(3) to 51.87 billion m^(3) under different climatic scenarios.The green water footprint is expected to increase by 20%,while the increase of blue water footprint is insignificant.Therefore,it is concluded that the increase of grain output will aggregate the water resources stress in the Yellow River Basin,while the growth of irrigation water demand may slow down.

关 键 词：水足迹 虚拟水 粮食生产 气候变化 黄河流域 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]