北大沙河流域径流变化归因分析  

Attribution analysis of runoff change in the Beidasha River Basin

作　　者：何玉芬 杨汉波[1,2] 唐莉华[1,2] 雷慧闽[1,2] 杨大文[1,2] HE Yufen;YANG Hanbo;TANG Lihua;LEI Huimin;YANG Dawen(Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学水利水电工程系,北京100084 [2]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100084

出　　处：《水资源保护》2022年第4期95-101,共7页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51979140,42041004);水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室自主课题(2021-KY-04)。

摘　　要：基于ABCD模型,提出了分离气候变化和人类活动对径流影响的分析框架,结合弹性系数法,在不同时间尺度上对北大沙河流域径流变化进行了归因分析。结果表明:从基准期(1980—1990年)到扰动期(2006—2018年),年尺度上ABCD模型和弹性系数法得到的气候变化导致径流的增加量分别为43.0 mm和32.0 mm,人类活动导致径流的减少量同气候变化导致的增加量相当,弹性系数法未考虑气象要素年内分配的变化,可能低估气候变化的影响;月尺度上,气候变化使径流在汛期增加了4.4~18.1 mm,非汛期增加了1.3~2.2 mm,在夏、秋两季占主导地位,人类活动使径流9月增加了11.3 mm,其他月份减少了1.9~10.1 mm,在春、冬两季占主导地位。Based on the ABCD model,this study proposed an analysis framework to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change,and carried out an attribution analysis in the Beidasha River Basin on different time scales with this framework and the elastic coefficient method.The results show that,on an annual scale,the contributions of climate change to runoff increase from the base period(from 1980 to 1990)to the disturbed period(from 2006 to 2018)are 43.0 mm and 32.0 mm by the ABCD model and the elastic coefficient method,respectively,and the impact of human activities on runoff is comparable to that of climate change.The elastic coefficient method does not consider the intra-annual variation of meteorological forcings,which may underestimate the impact of climate change.On a monthly scale,climate change increases the runoff by 4.4 to 18.1 mm and 1.3 to 2.2 mm during flood season and nonflood season,respectively,which is dominant in summer and autumn;human activities increase runoff by 11.3 mm in September and decrease runoff by 1.9 to 10.1 mm in other months,which are dominant in spring and winter.

关 键 词：径流变化 ABCD模型 弹性系数法 气候季节性 归因分析 北大沙河流域 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]