降水变化条件下沿海地区暴雨潮位遭遇联合风险  

Joint risks of rainstorm and tidal level under varying precipitation conditions in coastal areas

作　　者：王磊之 崔婷婷[1] 李笑天 李伶杰 刘克强[3] 李曦亭 WANG Leizhi;CUI Tingting;LI Xiaotian;LI Lingjie;LIU Keqiang;LI Xiting(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Water Resources Management Center,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China;Water Conservancy Development Research Center,Taihu Basin Authority,Shanghai 200434,China)

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [2]水利部水资源管理中心,北京100038 [3]太湖流域管理局水利发展研究中心,上海200434

出　　处：《水资源保护》2022年第4期110-116,共7页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502705,2021YFC3000101-02);国家自然科学基金(52109028);江苏省自然科学基金(BK20210042)。

摘　　要：为辨识沿海地区极端降水变化特性,并定量揭示其对暴雨潮位遭遇风险的影响,以华南沿海地区的深圳市为例,采用Pettitt方法检测1965—2016年极值降水的变异情况,根据变异年份划分研究时段,基于Copula函数构建了深圳市暴雨潮位的联合分布模型,对比分析了不同时期暴雨潮位遭遇的联合风险的变化情况。结果表明:1985年为深圳年最大1 d降水量的突变点;受极端降水特性变化的影响,对同一重现期的暴雨潮位组合而言,1985年之后暴雨潮位遭遇风险较1985年之前显著增大;Copula函数求解简便、适应性强,能够定量求解沿海城市暴雨潮位遭遇的联合风险。In order to identify the variation characteristics of extreme precipitation and quantitatively reveal its impact on the encounter probability of rainstorm and tidal level in coastal areas,using Shenzhen City in the coastal area of South China as the study area,the variation of extreme precipitation from 1965 to 2016 was investigated with the Pettitt method.A joint distribution model of rainstorm and tidal level was constructed based on the Copula function with the study period divided into different stages by the change year.The changes of the joint risks of encounter of rainstorm and tidal level at different stages were compared and analyzed.The results show that 1985 was the abrupt change point of the maximum one-day precipitation in Shenzhen City.The risk of encounter of rainstorm and tidal level with a same return period after 1985 was significantly higher than that before 1985 due to changes in extreme precipitation characteristics.The Copula function,which is easy to solve and has strong adaptability,can be used to quantitatively solve the joint risk of rainstorm and tidal level in coastal cities.

关 键 词：极值暴雨 潮位 遭遇 COPULA函数 联合分布 深圳市 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]