和田河流域冰川径流对气候变化响应的模拟分析  

Simulation of response of glacier runoff to climate change in the Hotan River Basin

作　　者：魏潇娜 龙爱华[1,2] 尹振良[3] 於嘉闻 WEI Xiaona;LONG Aihua;YIN Zhenliang;YU Jiawen(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;College of Water and Architectural Engineering,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832003,China;Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,新疆石河子832003 [3]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《水资源保护》2022年第4期137-144,共8页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0404301);新疆维吾尔自治区流域规划委员会重大咨询项目(403-1005-YBN-FT6I-2,403-1005-YBN-FT6I-7);水利部前期项目(WR0149B122020)。

摘　　要：为模拟和田河流域上游冰川径流,构建了嵌入冰川模块的SWAT模型,并基于实测径流数据及冰川编目数据对模型进行校正与验证,定量分析了和田河流域上游冰川径流的变化趋势及其对出山径流的贡献和对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明:1967—2017年玉龙喀什河流域多年平均冰川径流量为11.02亿m^(3),冰川径流对出山径流的贡献率为48.7%,喀拉喀什河流域多年平均冰川径流量为9.51亿m^(3),冰川径流贡献率为45.5%;在0.01显著性水平下,玉龙喀什河流域气温与降水量均呈显著上升趋势,喀拉喀什河流域气温呈显著上升趋势,降水量呈不显著上升趋势;气候变化背景下,两条支流由于地理位置、冰川特征等的不同,导致两条支流的径流响应呈现较大差异,玉龙喀什河流域冰川径流量呈显著增加趋势,而冰川径流对出山径流的贡献率呈显著下降趋势,喀拉喀什河流域冰川径流量与冰川径流贡献率均呈不显著增加趋势。The SWAT model embedded with glacier module was built for glacier runoff simulation in the upper Hotan River Basin.Based on the measured runoff data and glacier cataloging data,the model was corrected and verified,and the contribution of glacier runoff to surface runoff,change trend of glacier runoff,and its response rule to climate change in the river basin were quantitatively analyzed.The results show that the average annual glacial runoff of the Yurungkash River Basin is 11.02×10^(8) m^(3),with its contribution rate to surface runoff being 48.70%,and the average annual glacial runoff of the Karakash River Basin is 9.51×10^(8) m^(3),with its contribution rate to surface runoff being 45.46%;with regard to the significance level of 0.01,temperature and precipitation of the Yurungkash River Basin have significant increasing trends,respectively,temperature of the Karakash River Basin has a significant increasing trend,while precipitation of the Karakash River Basin has an insignificant increasing trend;under the climate change background,there is a large difference between the runoff responses of the two tributaries due to different geographical positions and glacier characteristics,with glacier runoff of the Yurungkash River Basin and its contribution rate having a significant increasing and decreasing trend,respectively,while the glacial runoff of the Karakash River Basin and its contribution rate both having increasing trends.

关 键 词：冰川径流模拟 SWAT模型 气候变化 响应分析 和田河流域 

分 类 号：TV12[水利工程—水文学及水资源]