2010—2020年湖北省流行性腮腺炎空间聚集性及其动态变化分析  

Spatial clustering and dynamic change of mumps in Hubei Province in 2010-2020

作　　者：杨雯雯[1] 谢聪 张鹏[1] 蔡晶[1] 吴然 黄淑琼[1] YANG Wen-wen;XIE Cong;ZHANG Peng;CAI Jing;WU Ran;HUANG Shu-qiong(Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuhan,Hubei 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北省疾病预防控制中心,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2022年第4期24-27,共4页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：湖北省卫生健康科研基金资助(WJ2021M206)。

摘　　要：目的通过探索2010—2020年湖北省流行性腮腺炎的空间聚集性及其变化规律,为疫情防控提供参考依据。方法通过中国传染病报告信息管理系统获取2010—2020年湖北省流行性腮腺炎监测资料,利用ArcGIS10.5软件对各区县的发病率进行趋势面和空间自相关分析。结果2010—2020年湖北省流行性腮腺炎发病率在8.70~44.99/10万之间。趋势面分析显示发病率由西向东逐渐降低,南北方向呈中间低两边高趋势。全局空间自相关分析显示,除2012年和2014年外其他年份存在空间正相关。局部空间自相关分析显示,2010—2020年流行性腮腺炎发病率每年均有热点区域,随时间呈现明显变化规律。结论根据空间分析结果,湖北省流行性腮腺炎发病具有明显空间聚集性,热点区域主要集中在鄂西北,但是在疫情高发年份热点区域还扩展到鄂东和鄂中北的城区,应重点关注以上热点区域,采取针对性的防控措施。Objective To explore spatial clustering of mumps in Hubei Province during 2010-2020,and to provide evidence for mumps prevention and control.Methods The surveillance data of mumps during 2010-2020 in Hubei Province was obtained from the national infectious diseases reporting information system.Trend surface analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis of mumps incidences at county/district levels were performed using ArcGIS10.5 software.Results Mumps incidence rates in Hubei Province during 2010-2020 ranged from 8.70 per 100000 to 44.99 per 100000.The trend surface analysis showed that mumps incidences gradually decreased from west to east,and was low in the middle and high at the north-south direction.Global spatial autocorrelation showed that there were positive spatial correlations in every year except 2012 and 2014.Local autocorrelation analysis showed that the hotspots of mumps incidences varied every year from^(2)010 to 2020.Conclusions According to the spatial analysis,mumps incidences had obvious spatial clustering in Hubei Province.The hotspots were mainly concentrated in the northwestern region of Hubei,but the hot spots also extended to the eastern Hubei and northern central Hubei in the year of high epidemic incidence.It is necessary to take appropriate prevention and control measures in the high-incidence areas.

关 键 词：流行性腮腺炎 趋势面 空间自相关 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]