1990—2019年江苏启东市糖尿病死亡趋势及去死因期望寿命预测  

Trend analysis of diabetes deaths and prediction of life expectancy without causes in Qidong City in 1990-2019

作　　者：徐源佑 张永辉[1,2] 丁璐璐[1,2] 陈永胜[1,2] 王军 陈建国[1,2] 朱健 XYU Yuan-you;ZHANG Yong-hui;DING Lu-lu;CHEN Yong-sheng;WANG Jun;CHEN Jian-guo;ZHU Jian(Qidong People′s Hospital&Qidong Liver Cancer Institute,Nantong,Jiangsu 226200,China;Affiliated Qidong Hospital of Nantong University,Nantong,Jiangsu 226200,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省启东肝癌防治研究所/江苏省启东市人民医院,江苏南通226200 [2]南通大学附属启东医院,江苏南通226200

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2022年第4期28-32,共5页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：南通市卫生健康委员会2020年科研立项课题(QB2020025)。

摘　　要：目的研究分析1990—2019年江苏省启东市居民糖尿病死亡的变化趋势和期望寿命的影响,为制定卫生政策提供依据。方法根据1990—2019年启东市全死因监测资料及历年人口资料,对居民糖尿病死亡率及时间趋势进行分析,采用Joinpoint 4.7.0.0软件,计算指标包括粗死亡率(CR)、中国标化率(CASR)及年度变化百分比(APC)、潜在减寿年数(PYLL)和潜在寿命损失年数率(PYLLR)等。结果1990—2019年启东市居民糖尿病的CR为15.12/10万,其中男性为12.72/10万,女性为17.45/10万;总CASR为7.58/10万,其中男性为6.47/10万,女性为8.59/10万。趋势分析显示,男性CR的APC为9.31%,CASR的APC为5.26%,女性CR的APC为8.12%,CASR的APC为4.40%;45~64岁CR的APC为2.59%,CASR的APC为4.85%;65~岁CR的APC为7.20%,CASR的APC为9.79%,除15~44岁年龄组外差异均具有统计学意义。启东市居民期望寿命从1990年的73.95岁上升至2019年的82.91岁(APC=0.38,P<0.001),去糖尿病期望寿命由1990年的74.01岁上升至2019年的83.39岁(APC=0.39,P<0.001)。结论30年来启东市居民糖尿病死亡率和寿命损失逐年上升且趋势明显,女性的糖尿病死亡率和寿命损失均高于男性,高年龄组糖尿病死亡率水平和增加速度均高于低年龄组,应对相应人群进行重点干预。Objective To study and analyze the trend of diabetes death and the impact of life expectancy in Qidong City,Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019,and to provide a basis for formulating health policies.Methods Based on the surveillance data of deaths from all causes in Qidong City and the population data over the years from 1990 to 2019,the residents′diabetes mortality and temporal trends were analyzed.Joinpoint 4.7.0.0 software was used to calculate relevant indicators including crude mortality(CR),age-standardized rates by China population(CASR),annual percentage change(APC),potential years of life lost(PYLL),and potential years of life lost rate(PYLLR).Results The CR of diabetes in Qidong City from 1990 to 2019 was 15.12/100000,with a rate of 12.72/100000 in males and a rate of 17.45/100000 in females.The total CASR was 7.58/100000,including 6.47/100000 for males and 8.59/100000 for females.Trend analysis showed that the APC of CR and CASR was 9.31%and 5.26%in males,and 8.12%and 4.40%in females,respectively.The APC of CR and CASR in the 45-64 years old group was 2.59%and 4.85%,respectively.The APC of CR and CASR in the 65 years old and above group was 7.20%and 9.79%,respectively.There were statistically significant differences except for the 15-44 years old group.The life expectancy of residents in Qidong City rose from 73.95 years in 1990 to 82.91 years in 2019(APC=0.38,P<0.001),and life expectancy without diabetes rose from 74.01 years in 1990 to 83.39 years in 2019(APC=0.39,P<0.001).Conclusion In the past 30 years,the diabetes mortality and life loss of residents in Qidong City have been increasing year by year and the trend is obvious.Women′s diabetes mortality and life loss are higher than those in men.The level and increase rate of diabetes mortality in the high age group are higher than those in the low age group.It is necessary to carry out key intervention for the corresponding population.

关 键 词：糖尿病 死亡率 期望寿命 预测 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]