烟台苹果气候产量与生育期气象因子的灰色关联分析  

Grey Correlation Analysis of Apple Climatic Yield and Meteorological Factors at Different Growth Stages in Yantai

作　　者：李秀美 范宝伟 魏然 闫军辉 刘苏涛 宋旭峰 LI Xiumei;FAN Baowei;WEI Ran;YAN Junhui;LIU Sutao;SONG Xufeng(College of Geographic Sciences/Henan Key Laboratory for Synergistic Prevention of Water and Soil Environmental Pollution/Southern Henan Center for Mineral Rock and Gem-Jade Identification and Processing,Xinyang Normal University,Xinyang 464000,China)

机构地区：[1]信阳师范学院地理科学学院/河南省水土环境污染协同防治重点实验室/豫南岩矿宝玉石鉴定及加工中心,河南信阳464000

出　　处：《信阳师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2022年第3期417-423,共7页Journal of Xinyang Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(419011015);河南省研究生教育改革与质量提升工程项目(HNYJS2020JD14);信阳师范学院“南湖学者奖励计划”青年项目。

摘　　要：选取1996-2016年烟台市苹果产量数据及气象资料数据,应用指数平滑法及邓氏灰色关联分析模型,分析了烟台地区苹果不同生长阶段气象因素与苹果气候产量的关系。结果表明:在烟台苹果各生育期内,对苹果气候产量影响最大的气象因素是风速,其次是气温,影响最小的气象因素是日照时数;降水在膨果期对苹果气候产量的影响较小,但在其他生育期内其对苹果气候产量影响仅次于风速和气温;日照百分率和相对湿度在膨果期对苹果气候产量影响较大,但在其他生育期内对苹果气候产量影响较小。在全球气候变化背景下,欲提高烟台苹果的产量和品质,需加强各时期气象灾害的预报预警,有针对性地在烟台苹果生产过程中采取相应的管理和防御措施,如防风措施、水利灌溉设施和防病虫害措施等,使果农经济损失降至最低点。Based on the climate data and apple yield data in Yantai area from 1996 to 2016,the relationship between apple yield and different climatic factors at different growth stages in Yantai area is studied by using the exponential smoothing method and Deng’s grey correlation analysis model.The results show that,of the many natural factors,wind speed is the primary influence on each growth stage of Yantai apple,following by air temperature.However,sunshine duration is the least important factor.Precipitation has little effect on the climatic yield of apple in the tufting stage,however,in other growth periods,the influence is only lower than wind speed and temperature.The percentage of sunshine and relative humidity has a great effect on the climatic yield of apple in the puffing-fruit stage,but little effect in other growth stages.Under the background of global climate change,therefore,to improve the yield and quality of Yantai apple,it is urgently need to strengthen the forecast and early warning of meteorological disasters in all growth stages,and take the corresponding management and defense measures in a targeted way,such as wind prevention measures,water conservancy and irrigation facilities and pest prevention measures.Through these measures,the fruit farmer economic loss can drop to the lowest point.

关 键 词：苹果 不同生育期 气象因子 产量 灰色关联 

分 类 号：S661.1[农业科学—果树学] S161[农业科学—园艺学]