基于PSR模型的大别山区基本公共服务承载力及协调发展  

Basic Public Service Carrying Capacity and Its Coordinated Development in Dabie Mountain Area Based on Pressure-State-Response Model

作　　者：朱伟[1,2] 余向洋 程启先 张鑫仕 王佳楠 张强 ZHU Wei;YU Xiangyang;CHENG Qixian;ZHANG Xinshi;WANG Jianan;ZHANG Qiang(College of Medicine,Xinyang Normal University,Xinyang 464000,China;College of Geographical Sciences,Xinyang Normal University,Xinyang 464000,China;College of Computer and Information Technology,Xinyang Normal University,Xinyang 464000,China;College of Geography&Environment,Baoji University of Arts and Sciences,Baoji 721013,China;College of Geography and Environment,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250358,China)

机构地区：[1]信阳师范学院医学院,河南信阳464000 [2]信阳师范学院地理科学学院,河南信阳464000 [3]信阳师范学院计算机与信息技术学院,河南信阳464000 [4]宝鸡文理学院地理与环境学院,陕西宝鸡721013 [5]山东师范大学地理与环境学院,山东济南250358

出　　处：《信阳师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2022年第3期424-431,共8页Journal of Xinyang Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(4207071645;U1904125);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(22A170018);河南省研究生教育改革与质量提升工程项目(HNYJS2020JD14);河南省教育厅大学生社会实践项目(2021CCZYYB098)。

摘　　要：基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型,运用指数变换规范化、均方差赋权法、灰色模糊物元评价、耦合协调度模型、时间序列预测和标准差椭圆模型,对2003—2018年大别山区7个地市的基本公共服务承载力及其协调发展进行实证研究。结果表明:(1)大别山区基本公共服务协调度呈平稳增长的趋势;(2)各地市承载力协调度评价值在预测时段(2019—2023年)呈现增长趋势,标准差椭圆模型呈现出“西北—东南”趋势、重心移动路径偏北;(3)大别山区基本公共服务承载力的研究有待深化,后续研究应当从指标、时段和区域等方面进一步丰富和完善。Based on the pressure-state-response model, by using normalization of exponential transformation, mean square deviation weighting method, grey fuzzy matter-element evaluation, coupling coordination degree model, time series prediction and standard deviation ellipse model, the basic public service carrying capacity and coordinated development of 7 cities in Dabie Mountain area from 2003 to 2018 are empirical researched. The results show that:(1) The coordination degree of basic public services in Dabie Mountain area shows a steady growth trend.(2) The evaluation value of carrying capacity coordination in various cities shows an increase trend in the prediction period(2019-2023). The standard deviation elliptic model shows a “northwest-southeast” trend, and the center of gravity moves to the north.(3) The research on the carrying capacity of basic public services in Dabie Mountain area needs to be deepened, and the follow-up research should be further enriched and improved from the aspects of indicators, time periods and regions.

关 键 词：基本公共服务承载力 压力-状态-响应模型 时空演化 协调发展 大别山区 

分 类 号：D630[政治法律—政治学]