经济政策不确定性对中国资本市场发展的影响及其应对  

The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Development of China′s Capital Market and Its Countermeasures

作　　者：邢天才[1] 王笑 Xing Tiancai;Wang Xiao

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学金融学院,大连116025

出　　处：《中州学刊》2022年第6期14-20,共7页Academic Journal of Zhongzhou

基　　金：国家自然科学基金一般项目“上市金融机构系统性风险传导与演化机制实证与模拟研究”(71273042);教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“欧美债务危机对中国金融结构与产业组织的影响研究”(13JJD790061)。

摘　　要：受错综复杂的国际形势与经济转型升级的国内压力影响,近年来国内外经济政策不确定性显著提升。资本市场作为连接实体经济与金融的重要枢纽,对政策变化具有高度敏感性。在经济政策不确定性的影响下,中国资本市场呈现出市场波动加剧、股权融资规模下降和国际资本净流出增加的特征。经济政策不确定性通过投资者预期、信息传导、金融交易等内部传导机制以及政策传染、国际资本配置转移、国际贸易活动等外部溢出途径作用于中国资本市场,引发股价崩盘风险增加、市场流动性不足且投资者情绪低迷等问题。为此,政府部门应科学运用政策调控工具,增强预期管理能力,疏通政策传导渠道,深入推进资本市场对外开放,促进资本市场平稳健康发展。In recent years,influenced by the complicated international situation and the domestic pressure of economic transformation and upgrading,the uncertainty of domestic and foreign economic policies has increased significantly.As an important hub connecting the real economy and finance,the capital market is highly sensitive to the change of policy orientation.Under the influence of economic policy uncertainty,China′s capital market is characterized by intensified market volatility,a decline in the scale of equity financing and an increase in the net outflow of international capital.Economic policy uncertainty affects China′s capital market through internal transmission mechanisms such as investor expectations,information transmission and financial transactions,as well as external spillovers such as policy contagion,international capital allocation transfer and international trade activities,causing problems such as increased risk of share price collapse,insufficient market liquidity and low investor sentiment.To this end,government departments should scientifically use policy control tools,enhance the ability of expectation management,dredge policy transmission channels,further promote the opening of the capital market,and promote the steady and healthy development of the capital market.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 资本市场 传导机制 

分 类 号：F831.7[经济管理—金融学]