人口老龄化、房价波动与银行稳定性关系研究  

Population Aging, Housing Price Fluctuation and Banking System Stability

作　　者：王重润[1] 庞晓宇 Wang Chongrun;Pang Xiaoyu(School of Finance,Hebei University of Economics and Business,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050061,China;Zhangjiakou Branch,China Construction Bank,Zhangjiakou Hebei 075000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北经贸大学金融学院,河北石家庄050061 [2]中国建设银行股份有限公司张家口富强路支行,河北张家口075000

出　　处：《河北经贸大学学报》2022年第4期23-33,共11页Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“住房财富变动对城镇居民消费行为影响机制、效应及政策研究”(21BJL013)。

摘　　要：近年来,我国人口老龄化速度加快,其潜在影响引起广泛关注。基于2005—2018年31个省份面板数据,分析人口老龄化与银行稳定性之间的关系以及房价的中介作用机制。研究发现:人口结构变化对银行稳定性具有显著影响,人口老龄化不利于银行稳定。房价是人口老龄化与银行稳定性关系的重要中介变量,异质性分析发现,仅在中部地区具有完全中介效应,东部和西部地区具有部分中介效应。引入人口流动与人口老龄化的交互项,发现人口流动有利于缓解人口老龄化对银行稳定性的负面影响。为此,应采取因地制宜的政策,提高人口出生率、完善房地产市场长效机制、取消户籍限制等,以缓解人口老龄化对银行体系稳定性的影响。Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2005 to 2018, the relationship between population structure and the stability of the banking system was analyzed. It is found that the demographic change had a significant negative impact on the stability of the banking system. The intermediary mechanism test showed that the housing price was an important intermediary variable for the impact of population structure on banking stability, however the impact different among regions. By introducing the interaction term between population mobility and population aging, it was found that population mobility was beneficial to alleviate the negative effect of population aging on the stability of Banks. The robustness test showed that the regression results were reliable. The policy enlightenment of this paper was to increase the birth rate, improve the long-term mechanism of real estate market and open household registration policy.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 房价 人口结构 银行稳定性 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] F832.1