中国经济如何稳中求进和高质量发展  

How to Pursue Progress while Maintaining Stability and Promote High-quality Development for China's Economy

作　　者：田国强 陈旭东[3] TIAN Guoqiang;CHEN Xudong

机构地区：[1]湖北经济学院 [2]上海财经大学,上海200433 [3]上海财经大学高等研究院、中国经济思想发展研究院,上海200433

出　　处：《学术月刊》2022年第6期34-46,共13页Academic Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金专项项目“中国经济系统建模与仿真”(72141303);上海高峰学科项目“中国宏观经济形势分析与预测”(2018110925)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：中国经济正面临需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱等新的多重下行压力,如何落实稳字当头、稳中求进的工作总基调,实现高质量发展,已成为一个重要现实课题。从外部看,百年未有变局与世纪新冠疫情交互影响,给中国经济带来较大不确定性。从内部看,周期性、政策性、体制性、结构性因素相互交织,尤其是一些政策调整未能把握好时度效,加剧了市场微观经济主体的经营困难局面,同时中国经济发展的创新性、协调性、生态性、开放性、共享性也都还有较大欠缺,远未达到新发展理念和高质量发展的要求。面对这一局面,中国需要同步进行跨周期设计、逆周期调节与改革开放深化,以落实稳中求进和推动高质量发展。稳定经济大局,需要加大宏观经济政策实施力度,积极的财政政策要更加精准和可持续,稳健的货币政策要灵活适度,并提高宏观经济政策的稳定性、连续性和可预期性。但短期政策应对主要针对需求收缩和供给冲击的压力,应对短期稳中求进问题和中长期高质量发展,更迫切、更重要和更根本的还是要靠深层次的结构性和体制性改革及其治理,并发挥更高水平对外开放的倒逼作用和增长红利,从基础性的正式制度和非正式制度环境层面变革入手,将创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享的新发展理念落实到政策和改革措施制定、执行中去,这是应对预期转弱压力和实现高质量发展的最有效对策。China's economy is facing multiple emerging downward pressures such as shrinking demand,supply shock and weakening expectations.It has thus become an important practical topic to implement the guideline of seeking progress while maintaining stability and to achieve high-quality development.Externally,the unprecedented changes and Covid-19 pandemic have brought great uncertainty to China's economy.Internally,cyclical,policy,institutional and structural factors are intertwined;and particularly,some policy adjustments are not proper in timing,intensity and effect,exacerbating the difficult operations of market microeconomic agents.At the same time,China's economic development is still lacking in innovation,coordination,ecology,openness and sharing,far from meeting the requirements of new development philosophy and achieving high-quality development.In this situation,China needs to simultaneously carry out cross-cycle policy design,counter-cyclical adjustment and deepening reform and opening up,so as to achieve progress amid stability and high-quality development.To stabilize the overall economy,it is necessary to intensify the implementation of more stable,consistent,and predictable macroeconomic policies,adopt more accurate,sustainable proactive fiscal policies,and employ more flexible,appropriate prudent monetary policies.However,short-term policies should be aimed mainly at dealing with shrinking demand and supply shock,whereas seeking progress amid stability in the short term and high-quality development in the medium and long term should rely critically and fundamentally on deep-seated structural and institutional reform and governance,and the role of higher-level opening-up and growth dividends,so as to reform the basic formal institution and informal institution environment,and truly incorporate the philosophy of innovative,coordinated,green,open and shared development into the formulation and implementation of policies and reform measures.This serves as the most effective countermeasure to address the pressu

关 键 词：中国经济 稳中求进 高质量发展 改革开放 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]