中国大豆2021—2025年消费量和生产量预测分析  

Prediction and Analysis of China’s Soybean Consumption and Production in 2021—2025

作　　者：马宏伟[1] 白荻 李静[1] 赵月霞[1] MA Hong-wei;BAI Di;LI Jing;ZHAO Yue-xia(College of Information and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学信息管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《大豆科学》2022年第3期358-362,共5页Soybean Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72171121);南京农业大学课程思政示范课程(KCSZ2021093)。

摘　　要：中国是世界上大豆消费量和进口量最大的国家,为了较为准确地预测我国大豆未来的消费量和生产量,维护我国大豆供给安全,本研究提出Grey-Markov大豆消费量预测模型,采用GM(1, 1)模型和Grey-Markov模型对2017—2020年我国大豆消费量进行拟合,并利用其中预测精度较高的模型预测我国2021—2025年的大豆消费量和生产量。结果表明:Grey-Markov模型预测精度较高,利用该模型的进一步预测结果表明,2017—2020年我国大豆供给量与需求量之间的缺口分别为10.37,10.87,11.40,11.95和12.53亿t, 2021—2025年我国大豆生产量和消费量年增长率将分别为6.06%和5.01%。最后,根据预测数据提出建议:我国应力争实现大豆进口多元化、大力发展国内大豆产业,以提高粮食安全性。China is the country with the largest soybean consumption and import in the world. In order to accurately predict the future consumption and production of soybean in China and maintain the safety of soybean supply in China, this study proposed the Grey-Markov prediction model for soybean consumption prediction, used GM(1,1) model and Grey-Markov model to fit the China′s soybean consumption from 2017 to 2020. Then, we used the model with higher precision to predict China′s soybean consumption and production from 2021 to 2025. The results showed that the Grey-Markov model had higher prediction accuracy. The forecast results with Grey-Markov model showed the gap between China′s soybean supply and demand of 2021—2025 will be 1 037, 1 087, 1 140, 1 195 and 1 253 million tons respectively, and the annual growth rates of China′s soybean production and consumption will be 6.06% and 5.01% respectively. Finally, according to the forecast data, it was suggested that China should make great efforts to diversify soybean imports and develop domestic soybean industry to improve food security.

关 键 词：大豆 Grey-Markov模型 预测 消费量 生产量 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.6