房地产市场风险:根源、影响及对策——兼论金融如何促进房地产转型  

Real Estate Market Risk and Countermeasures——How Finance Promotes the Transformation of Real Estate

作　　者：杜娟 蔡真[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]烟台市莱山区统计调查中心 [2]中国社会科学院金融研究所房地产金融研究中心 [3]中国社会科学院国家金融与发展实验室房地产金融研究中心

出　　处：《金融市场研究》2022年第6期46-56,共11页Financial Market Research

基　　金：中国社会科学院创新工程项目“健全金融监管体制,防范系统性金融风险(2018JRSA01)”;国家高端智库基础课题“房地产市场风险监测及对策研究”的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本轮房地产市场风险的根源是:房地产市场长期拐点来临与以“三高”模式为典型的地产资本无序扩张激烈碰撞,同时金融体系的脆弱性放大了风险。房地产市场风险产生了严重的外溢效应,影响到金融市场、上下游企业以及财政体系。由于地产金融化的特点,其最初表现为流动性风险,监管当局采取了引导市场预期和信贷托底方式应对,取得了一定效果。从长期看房地产走向新发展模式成为必然,本文对金融促进房地产转型提出了相关建议。The root cause of risks in the real estate market is the sharp collision of a disorderly expansion of real estate assets and a long-term turning point in the market. Moreover, the vulnerability of the financial system magnifies these risks. There also is a serious spillover effect which impacts the financial market, upstream and downstream enterprises, as well as the financial system. Due to the characteristics of real estate financialization, the initial result is liquidity risk, and regulatory authorities have responded by guiding market expectations and encouraging credit backing. This has achieved certain positive results, but from a longterm perspective, it is inevitable that real estate will shift towards a new development model. This paper puts forward some suggestions on how finance can promote a transformation of the real estate sector.

关 键 词：房地产市场风险 房地产转型 房地产平准基金 REITs制度 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F832