加入WTO对中国开放型经济体制发展的影响研究:基于中央政府工作报告文本的实证分析  

Research on the Impact of China’s Accession to the WTO on the Development of China’s Open Economic System:Based on the Empirical Analysis of Central Government Work Reports

作　　者：余振[1,2] 李晨曦 Yu Zhen;Li Chenxi

机构地区：[1]武汉大学美国加拿大经济研究所 [2]武汉大学中国边界与海洋研究院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2022年第4期3-17,M0002,共16页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目“‘一带一路’相关国家贸易竞争与互补关系研究”(项目号:16ZDA039)。

摘　　要：不断推进改革和开放是中国经济持续健康发展的重要动力,构建开放型经济体制也是中国经济发展取得历史性成就的基础之一。加入WTO是中国开放型经济向前发展的一大步。为此,文章基于1992~2021年中国中央政府工作报告,运用主题模型等计算机文本分析方法,估计中国开放型经济体制的发展特征及趋势,并分析加入WTO对其产生的影响。为区分加入WTO和国内相关因素的影响,基于文本分析结果进一步采用VAR模型进行脉冲响应和方差分解分析。研究结果显示:第一,加入WTO后,中国建设开放型经济体制的步伐加快,尤其是在加入WTO“过渡期”结束后的前几年;第二,加入WTO通过提高商品市场和要素市场的开放程度促进了开放型经济体制的发展;第三,加入WTO给中国金融体制、价格体制、所有制结构、财税体制等涉外经济体制的改革提供了新动力,推动中国开放型经济体制向更高水平迈进。VAR模型的结果表明加入WTO对于中国开放型经济体制的发展具有显著影响。研究结果为全面理解加入WTO对中国经济的影响提供了全新的研究视角,也为开放型经济体制发展特征的识别和量化做出了重要贡献。Continuing reform and opening-up is an important driving force for the sustainable and healthy development of China’s economy,and the establishment of open economic system is also one of the foundations for China’s historic economic development.Accession to the WTO is a big step forward in the development of China’s open economy.Therefore,based on the 1992~2021 China Central Government Work Reports,this paper uses computer text analysis method to estimate the development characteristics and trends of China’s open economic system,and analyzes the impact of China’s entry into the WTO.In order to distinguish the influence of WTO accession and domestic related factors,the VAR model was further used to conduct impulse response and variance decomposition analysis based on the text analysis results.The research results show that:first,after China’s accession to WTO,the pace of building an open economic system is accelerated,especially in the first few years after the end of the"transition period".Second,WTO accession promotes the development of the open economic system by increasing the openness of commodity markets and factor markets.Third,China’s accession to the WTO has provided new impetus for the reform of China’s financial system,price system,ownership structure,fiscal and taxation system and other foreign-related economic systems,and pushed China’s open economic system to a higher level.The results of the VAR model also show that WTO accession has a significant impact on the development of China’s open economic system.This study provides a new research perspective for a comprehensive understanding of the economic impact of China’s entry into the WTO,and also makes an important contribution to the identification and quantification of the development characteristics of an open economic system.

关 键 词：加入WTO 开放型经济体制 政府工作报告 文本分析 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]