京津冀地区基于需求预测的电子零售商模式创新研究  

Research of E-tailer′s Mode Innovation Based on Demand Forecasting in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

作　　者：成岳鹏 陈娜 胡文岭 CHENG Yue-peng;CHEN Na;HU Wen-ling(School of Management Science and Engineering,Hebei University of Economics and Business,Shijiazhuang 050061,China;The Bursar′s Office,Hebei University of Economics and Business,Shijiazhuang 050061,China)

机构地区：[1]河北经贸大学管理科学与工程学院,石家庄050061 [2]河北经贸大学财务处,石家庄050061

出　　处：《价值工程》2022年第22期57-60,共4页Value Engineering

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目(编号:HB17GL044)。

摘　　要：在分析电子零售商传统模式的基础上,本文设计出电子零售商在传统模式下使用库存系统和先来先服务规则满足顾客需求的运营流程图。再依据京津冀地区顾客需求的内在特征,从顾客需求细分和电子履单方式两个方面对电子零售商的传统模式进行基于需求预测的创新分析与处理,最后提出一种基于需求预测的电子零售商创新模式。这种创新模式不仅能扩大电子零售商的顾客群体,还能降低其运营风险,最后使得电子零售商赚取更多收益。该研究对京津冀地区电子零售商的创新发展具有重要的应用价值和现实意义。On the basis of analyzing the traditional mode of e-tailer,this paper designs the operational flow chart of e-tailer who using inventory system and first-come-first-served rule to satify customer demand in the traditional mode.Then,according to the intrinsic characteristics of customer demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the innovation analysis and processing on the e-tailer′s traditional model with demand forecasting is carried out from two aspects of customer demand segmentation and e-fulfillment option.Finally,an innovation mode of e-tailer based on demand forecasting is proposed.This innovative mode can not only expand the customer base of the e-tailer,but also reduces the operational risks,and finally enable the e-tailer to earn more profits.This research has important application value and practical significance for the innovation and development of e-tailers in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

关 键 词：电子零售商 电子商务 需求预测 模式创新 

分 类 号：F724.6[经济管理—产业经济]