价格视角下煤电双企行为演化博弈分析及仿真  

Evolutionary game analysis and simulation of coal and electricity enterprises’behaviors from the perspective of price

作　　者：丁晗 冯连勇[1] 杨茜 DING Han;FENG Lian-yong;YANG Qian(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京102249

出　　处：《价格月刊》2022年第7期1-7,共7页

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助“能源结构转型背景下中国能源系统净能源产出分析及其对经济发展的影响研究”(编号:71874202)。

摘　　要：煤电矛盾一直以来都是煤炭和电力行业乃至整个能源行业的焦点问题。在厘清稳定点的条件之后,通过演化博弈分析对煤电系统演化过程进行了模拟。研究结果表明:第一,在市场价格以及政策约束下,煤厂电厂双方策略会向加价与购买方向演化,但是策略的稳定性不仅取决于煤电企业在系统内外所取得效益的比较,很大程度上取决于政府对价格上涨进行的管控,一旦电厂发电面临亏损,政府会出面调控煤价以保证正常电力供应。这意味着煤厂定价是动态调整的过程,调整至双方均有利可图,以保持社会稳定。第二,策略稳定性与替代能源发电效率、政府对电厂的补贴及发电环境成本等都有着密切的关系,政府对其重点改进也有利于实现双碳目标。第三,在电价实行政府管控条件下,煤电价格联动政策仍是当前短期化解煤电矛盾主要手段。The contradiction between coal and electricity has always been the focus of the coal and electricity industry and even the entire energy industry.After clarifying the conditions of the stable point,this paper simulates the evolution process of coal and electricity system through evolutionary game analysis.The research results show that:first,under the constraints of market price and policy,the strategies of both coal factories and electric power plants will evolve towards rise in price and purchase,but the stability of the strategy depends not only on the comparison of the benefits achieved by coal and electricity enterprises inside and outside the system,but also largely on the government’s control over price rise.Once the electric power plants face losses in power generation,the government will regulate the coal price to ensure the normal power supply.This means that coal factory pricing is a dynamic adjustment process,which is profitable for both sides,so as to maintain social stability.Second,at the same time,strategic stability is closely related to the generation efficiency of alternative energy,thegovernment subsidies to electric power plants,and environmental costs of power generation.These key improvements by the government are also conducive to achieving the goals of emission peak and carbon neutrality.Third,under the condition that the electricity price is controlled by the government,the coal and electricity price linkage policy is still the primary measure to resolve the contradiction between coal and electricity in the short term.

关 键 词：煤电矛盾 价格 演化博弈 

分 类 号：F714[经济管理—产业经济]