中国农产品出口“海上丝绸之路”沿线主要国家的影响及潜力分析——基于贸易便利化视角  

Analysis on the impact and potential of China’s agricultural products export to major countries along the Maritime Silk Road——From the perspective of trade facilitation

作　　者：李文霞 金缀桥 卢敏 LI Wen-xia;JIN-Zhui-qiao;LU Min(School of International Economics and Trade,Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance,Shanghai 201209;Institute of European Studies,School of Business,East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237)

机构地区：[1]上海立信会计金融学院国际经贸学院,上海201209 [2]华东理工大学商学院欧洲研究所,上海200237

出　　处：《价格月刊》2022年第7期54-61,共8页

基　　金：国家社科基金面上项目“中美贸易摩擦背景下中国先进制造业价值链跃迁机理、实现路径与保障策略研究”(编号:19BJY099);上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题“知识产权保护对出口扩展边际影响的研究——以‘一带一路’合作框架下高技术产品为视角”(编号:2019BJB014);上海高校青年教师培养资助计划(编号:ZZLX20020,ZZLX21025)。

摘　　要：基于扩展引力模型,重点分析了贸易便利化水平对中国农产品出口“海上丝绸之路”沿线主要国家的影响及潜力。结果显示:伙伴国贸易便利化水平的提升可显著推动中国农产品出口规模扩大;考虑到可能存在的内生性问题,采用面板工具变量法进行检测,结果进一步验证了贸易便利化的正向推动作用;控制变量中的中国人均GDP对中国农产品出口额有显著推动作用,而进口国汇率对出口贸易有显著制约作用。模拟贸易便利水平提高20%后发现,中国对多数国家的农产品出口具有较大潜力,有待于进一步挖掘。应进一步提升中国与沿线各国间的贸易便利水平,努力扩大中国农产品出口规模。Based on the augmented gravity model,this paper focuses on the impact and potential of the level of trade facilitation on China’s agricultural products export to major countries along the Maritime Silk Road.The results show that the improvement of trade facilitation level of partner countries can significantly promote the expansion of China’s agricultural products exports;considering the possible endogenous problems,this paper uses the panel instrumental variable method to test,and the results further verify the positive driving effect of trade facilitation;China’s per capita GDP in the control variable has a significant driving effect on China’s agricultural products export,while the importing country’s exchange rate has a significant constraining effect on export trade.After simulating a 20%increase in the level of trade facilitation,it is found that China’s agricultural products export to most countries have great potential,which needs to be further explored.The trade facilitation level between China and the countries along the Road should be further improved,and strive to expand the scale of China’s agricultural products export.

关 键 词：农产品出口 贸易便利化水平 “海上丝绸之路” 出口潜力 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]