云南人口抚养比的影响因素分析  

Influencing Factors of Population Dependency Ratio in Yunnan Province

作　　者：丰庆 李丽[2] FENG Qing;LI Li(School of politicsand pulblic Admiscrion,Yunnan Minzu University,Kunming 650504,Yunnan,China;Business School of Honghe University,Mengzi 661199,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]云南民族大学政治与公共管理学院,云南昆明650504 [2]红河学院商学院,云南蒙自661199

出　　处：《红河学院学报》2022年第4期111-116,共6页Journal of Honghe University

摘　　要：人口抚养比是衡量劳动人口抚养负担的重要指标,它不仅包括学者们热衷研究的人口老龄化,还包含引领未来社会兴盛主体力量的少儿抚养比两层含义;结合云南少儿抚养比急剧下降、老年抚养比逐渐上升的发展现状,作者选取与云南总人口抚养比变化紧密联系的影响因素的1999年至2019年时间序列数据,在经过相关性、多重共线性等检验后建立自回归分布滞后模型,得出云南人口抚养比的增减变化受到失业率、城镇化率、人均预期寿命及居民幸福指数的显著影响的结论。并根据分析结果对降低云南老年人口与少儿人口抚养负担出谋划策,从而实现人口结构构成的最优化。This paper selects the time series data from 1999 to 2019,which are closely related to the change of total population dependency ratio in Yunnan Province,and establishes the autoregressive distribution lag model after the correlation and multi colinearity tests,and concludes that the increase and decrease of population dependency ratio in Yunnan Province is affected by the unemployment rate,the growth rate urbanization rate,life expectancy per-capita and happiness index of residents.Based on the results of the analysis,it provides suggestions to reduce the burden of supporting the elderly and children in Yunnan Province,and puts forward some constructive suggestions on the formulation of population development policies and the transformation of economic development mode,so as to improve the severe trend of population supporting ratio in Yunnan Province in recent years and realize the optimization of population structure.

关 键 词：云南 人口抚养比 影响因素 

分 类 号：F222.39[经济管理—国民经济] C923[社会学—人口学]