不完全合约视角下城市轨道交通PPP项目动态收益分配研究  

From The Perspective of Incomplete Contract Research on Dynamic Profit Distribution of Urban Rail Transit PPP Projects

作　　者：盛雪艳 王建波 SHENG Xue-yan;WANG Jian-bo(Yuncheng Vocational and Technical Univercity,Yuncheng 044000,China;School of Management Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266011,China)

机构地区：[1]运城职业技术大学,山西运城044000 [2]青岛理工大学管理工程学院,山东青岛266011

出　　处：《山东工业技术》2022年第3期95-102,共8页Journal of Shandong Industrial Technology

摘　　要：为解决当前城市轨道交通PPP项目收益分配问题,分析了引发收益不确定性的关键原因是PPP合约的不完全性,首先从不完全合约视角入手,梳理了投入比重、风险分担以及满意度三个因子对项目收益分配的作用机理,且与项目的动态发展变化相结合,并运用灰色系统分析中的关联分析法分别计算三个因子的权重,然后构建了改进后的Shapley值法动态收益分配模型,最后通过案例验证了改进后的Shapley模型的科学性和合理性。研究结论表明:当项目中出现的不可预料事件达到了重新分配收益的条件,修正后的Shapley模型仍可实现项目参与方收益的最优分配和项目整理收益最大化。In order to solve the current profit distribution problem of urban rail transit PPP projects,based on the perspective of incomplete contracts,the factors that affect the project’s distribution are analyzed and summarized.First,a preliminary profit distribution model of Shapley value method was constructed,and then Shapley value method was revised from the three dimensions of investment proportion,risk sharing proportion,and satisfaction degree.The correlation analysis method in gray system analysis was used to calculate the investment proportion,risk sharing proportion and satisfaction degree of the respective weights.Finally,a typical case verifies the applicability and feasibility of the Shapley model.The research conclusion shows that:when an event in the project meets the conditions for redistributing the pofits,the revised Shapley model can still achieve the optimal distribution of the profits of the project participants.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通项目 PPP 不完全合约 SHAPLEY值 动态收益分配 

分 类 号：F224.5[经济管理—国民经济]