美元化与货币政策溢出效应  

Dollarization and the Spillovers of Monetary Policy

作　　者：王胜[1] 肖泽亮 刘卫平[3] 吴郁 Wang Sheng;Xiao Zeliang;Liu Weiping;Wu Yu

机构地区：[1]武汉大学美加经济研究所 [2]武汉大学经管学院 [3]国家开发银行

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2022年第6期79-94,M0003,共17页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“不完全汇率传递与货币政策研究——经济全球化进程中的问题与挑战”(项目编号:71773085)的资助。

摘　　要：现阶段国际贸易多用美元结算,人民币国际化程度不高,国内居民需持有美元购买大部分国外进口商品。文章通过构建一个包含本币流动性约束的开放经济DSGE模型,探讨了美元化背景下美国货币政策的溢出效应。研究表明,引入人民币在国际金融市场的流动性约束能较好地反映中国等新兴市场国家经济的共同特点;美元化将明显强化外部冲击对中国经济的国际溢出效应,加大中国宏观经济的波动;汇率市场化改革能有效维持金融和经济稳定,提升社会福利,缓解美元化的不利影响。文章认为,中国应不断完善人民币跨境支付体系,推进人民币国际化进程,同时深化汇率制度改革,增强人民币汇率弹性。This paper examines the spillover effects of the U. S. monetary policy in the context of dollarization by constructing a DSGE model of open economy with RMB asset liquidity constraint. At present, international trade is still settled in US dollars, and the degree of RMB internationalization is not high, so domestic residents need to hold US dollars to purchase foreign goods. The research shows that introducing the liquidity constraint of RMB in the international financial market can well reflect the characteristics of current economy in China. Dollarization will strengthen the international spillover effects of external shocks obviously and increase the domestic macroeconomic fluctuations in China. The market-oriented reform of exchange rate can effectively help to maintain financial and economic stability, greatly improve social welfare, and avoid the disadvantages of dollarization. This paper argues that it′s beneficial to reduce the dependence on the US dollar, promote the internationalization of RMB, and persist in the reform of exchange rate system.

关 键 词：美元化 货币政策溢出效应 汇率市场化 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]