城乡收入差距与人口老龄化的时空关联——基于动态空间面板模型的实证分析  

Temporal and Spatial Relationship of Urban-rural Income Gap and Population Aging:An Empirical Analysis Based on Dynamic Spatial Panel Model

作　　者：王国定[1] 陈祥 孔欢 WANG Guo-ding;CHEN Xiang;KONG Huan(School of Public Finance and Economics,Shanxi University of Finance&Economics,Taiyuan 030006,China;School of Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学财政与公共经济学院,山西太原030006 [2]武汉理工大学管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《经济问题》2022年第7期44-53,共10页On Economic Problems

摘　　要：城乡收入差距和人口老龄化已经成为未来中国经济发展的两大桎梏。通过构建3种类型的空间权重矩阵,利用全局莫兰指数(Global Moran’s I)对中国省际城乡收入差距的空间相关性进行检验,并建立动态空间滞后模型(DSLM)研究两种类型老龄化对中国城乡收入差距的影响。研究表明:(1)中国省际的城乡收入差距呈现显著的空间正相关性;(2)顶部老龄化拉大了城乡收入差距,该影响在时间维度上具有叠加效应,并在长期中表现出明显的空间溢出效应;底部老龄化对城乡收入差距的影响并不显著;(3)政府涉农支出份额和社会保障支出份额的提高不利于城乡收入差距的弥合,但后者能够抑制顶部老龄化扩大城乡收入差距。据此建议均衡城乡差异化的社会保障体系,着力减轻农村居民的养老负担。Urban-rural income gap and aging of population are the two shackles of China’s economic development in the future.In this paper,we constructed three types of spatial weight matrices,and used global Moran’s I index to test the spatial correlation of urban-rural income gap among China’s provinces.Furthermore,by building dynamic spatial lag model to research the impact of two types of aging on urban-rural income gap,we concluded that:(1)The urban-rural income gap among China’s provinces shows a significant positive spatial correlation.(2)Aging at the apex has widened the income gap between urban and rural areas,which has a superposition effect in time dimension,and the spatial spillover effect is obvious in the long run.Differently,the impact of aging from the base on urban-rural income gap is insignificant.(3)The expansion of government expenditure on agriculture and social security is not conducive to bridging the urban-rural income gap,but the latter can restrain the intensity of the effect of aging at the apex on the urban-rural income gap.Our findings suggest that government departments should balance the inequality between urban and rural social security system,especially,reduce the elderly population support burden of rural residents.

关 键 词：城乡收入差距 顶部老龄化 底部老龄化 动态空间计量模型 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济]