伊朗的核决策困境:精英派系分化、核辩论与政策转变  

The Dilemma of Iranian Nuclear Decision-making:Elite Factionalism,Nuclear Debate and Policy Adjustment

作　　者：屠希亮 房宇馨 Tu Xiliang;Fang Yuxin

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学国际关系学院,北京100089

出　　处：《国际论坛》2022年第4期109-135,159,共28页International Forum

摘　　要：自“伊核危机”爆发以来,伊朗已形成了完整的核决策体系。然而,在该体系之下,尽管最高领袖哈梅内伊拥有最终决定权,但其依然需要考虑各方立场并在与国内其他机构进行繁复的协调后才能进行最终裁定。这是因为伊朗的核决策并不完全受国家利益驱使,而是取决于不同机构及政治精英之间的政治博弈和讨价还价。伊朗的政治精英在核议题上各有其特定的政策偏好,分属“拥核”“反核”以及立场中立的“抑核”派系。受国内权力格局影响,三大派系中的拥核派和抑核派在伊朗政坛占据主流,多年来为争夺核决策主导权而争辩不休。在美国特朗普政府退出伊核协议和苏莱曼尼遭到暗杀后,“拥核”和“抑核”两大阵营之间的断层线愈加凸显,持续多年的核辩论也愈演愈烈。随着不同核派系间力量平衡的变化,其相关的核政策建议将有可能对哈梅内伊的决策产生不同程度的影响,并最终决定伊朗总体核政策的转变和伊朗核协议的存续前景。因此,最高领袖只能谨慎地在各派系之间保持周旋与平衡,这也导致了伊朗现今面临着进退两难的核决策困境。伊朗国内无法愈合的派系分裂依然是伊朗重返核协议的重要障碍之一。Although Iran has a complete decision-making system in place since the outbreak of the Iranian nuclear crisis, Ayatollah Ali Khamenai, the Supreme Leader of Iran who possesses the right of final decision, can only make the final decision after taking into account the positions of various domestic players and a tedious process of consultation with relevant domestic institutions. Instead of being completely driven by state interests, Iranian nuclear decision-making depends on the political struggles and bargaining among different institutions and political elites. Given their different policy preferences, the Iranian political elites are divided into three factions: nuclear supporters, centrists and detractors. In the Iranian domestic balance of power, the nuclear supporters and detractors generally constitute the political mainstream and have thus for years competed for dominance in the nuclear issue. After US withdrawal from the JCPOA and the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the differences between nuclear supporters and nuclear centrists become more pronounced, intensifying the domestic nuclear debate which has lasted for nearly twenty years. As the balance of power among various factions changes, their nuclear policy preferences are likely to have an impact on Khamenai’s decision to varying degrees, thus also on the direction of Iranian nuclear policy and the prospect of the JCPOA. Therefore, since Khamenai can only cautiously maintain a tenuous balance among various factions, this leads to Iran’s dilemma in nuclear decision-making that it faces at present. The country’s irreparable factional divisions are still one of the main barriers for it to return to the negotiation table.

关 键 词：伊朗核协议 派系政治 核辩论 伊朗核问题 

分 类 号：D50[政治法律—政治学]