基于组合赋权云模型的装配式建筑投资风险评价  

Investment Risk Evaluation of Prefabricated Buildings Based on Cloud Model of Combination Weighting

作　　者：刘冠权 张琳琳 王志远 LIU Guanquan;ZHANG Linlin;WANG Zhiyuan(School of Management Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,China;Smart City Construction and Management Center of Universities in Shandong Province,Qingdao 266520,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学管理工程学院,山东青岛266520 [2]山东省高校智慧城市建设管理研究中心,山东青岛266520

出　　处：《沈阳建筑大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第2期153-159,共7页Journal of Shenyang Jianzhu University:Social Science

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2019PG007)。

摘　　要：装配式建筑的推广离不开开发商的积极配合,然而目前存在产业链不健全、技术不成熟等风险因素制约着开发商的投资决策。从政策、市场、技术、管理和经济5个方面出发,对装配式建筑投资风险进行剖析,并将COWA算子和G1法相结合,确定了指标权重值;继而运用云模型理论构建装配式建筑投资风险评价模型,最终通过案例验证了云模型的可行性,并通过相似度计算找出了影响风险评价等级的主要因素,为开发商评判和规避投资风险提供了一定的参考依据。The promotion of prefabricated buildings cannot be separated from the active cooperation of developers.However,at present,there are some risk factors,such as unsound industrial chain and immature technology,which restrict the investment decisions of developers.From five aspects of policy,market,technology,management and economy,the investment risk of prefabricated building is analyzed,and the index weight value is determined by combining COWA operator and G1 method.Then the cloud model theory is used to construct the prefabricated building investment risk evaluation model.Finally,the feasibility of the cloud model is verified through the case,and the main factors affecting the risk evaluation level are found out through the similarity calculation,which provides a certain reference basis for developers to judge and avoid the investment risk.

关 键 词：装配式建筑 COWA算子 G1法 云模型 风险评价 

分 类 号：F293.344[经济管理—国民经济] TU741[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]