基于N-K模型的地铁隧道施工安全风险耦合演化分析  

Coupling evolution analysis of subway tunnel construction safety risk based on N-K model

作　　者：方俊[1] 郭佩文 朱科 陈正福[3] FANG Jun;GUO Peiwen;ZHU Ke;CHEN Zhengfu(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China;Science Education Innovation Park,Wuhan University of Technology,Sanya Hainan 572000,China;Water Affairs Bureau and Lake Bureau of Jiangxia District,Wuhan Hubei 430200,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学土木工程与建筑学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]武汉理工大学三亚科教创新园,海南三亚572000 [3]武汉市江夏区水务和湖泊局,湖北武汉430200

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2022年第6期1-9,共9页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：海南省重大科技计划项目(ZDKJ2021024);三亚崖州湾科技城管理局重大科技项目(SKJC-KJ-2019KY02);三亚崖州湾科技城海南专项博士研究生科学研究基金资助(HSPHDSRF-2022-03-001);武汉理工大学三亚科教创新园开放基金资助(2020KF0012)。

摘　　要：为探究地铁隧道施工安全风险因素作用机制,科学预防施工安全事故,引入N-K模型演化分析地铁隧道施工安全风险耦合。在施工安全风险因素定义和耦合机制分析的基础上,根据耦合层次网络模型构建耦合交互场景,并按耦合数量进行组合分类;建立基于N-K模型的耦合效应度量模型,进行耦合信息交互、耦合效应量化计算;以我国近20年发生的231起地铁隧道施工典型事故为例,验证该模型的有效性和准确性。结果表明:安全事故的发生与风险耦合值成正比,耦合因素越多则风险值越大;人-管耦合风险值最大,管-环耦合风险值最小;主观因素与客观因素的耦合更易导致安全事故的发生。In order to explore the mechanism of safety risk factors in subway tunnel construction and prevent construction safety accidents scientifically,the N-K model was introduced into the evolution coupling analysis of safety risk in subway tunnel construction.On the basis of the definition of construction safety risk factors and the analysis of the coupling mechanism,the coupling interaction scenarios were constructed according to the coupling hierarchical network model,and the combined classification was carried out according to the number of coupling.The coupling effect measurement model based on N-K model was established,and the coupling information multivariate interaction and coupling effect quantitative calculation were carried out.The validity and accuracy of the model were verified by taking 231 typical accidents of subway tunnel construction in China in recent 20 years as examples.The results show that safety accidents are directly proportional to the risk coupling value,and the more coupling factors,the greater the risk value.The coupling risk value of human and management is the highest,and the coupling risk value of management and environment is the lowest.The coupling of subjective and objective factors is more likely to lead to safety accidents.

关 键 词：地铁隧道 施工安全 风险耦合 演化机制 N-K模型 

分 类 号：X948[环境科学与工程—安全科学]