基于均匀试验和PSO-RBF 的均质库岸边坡可靠度预测模型  

Reliability Prediction Model of Homogeneous Reservoir Bank Slope Basedon Uniform Test and PSO-RBF

作　　者：俞社鑫 潘建平[1,2] YU She-xin;PAN Jian-ping(School of Civil and Surveying Engineering,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000,Jiangxi Province,China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Geotechnical and Engineering Disaster Control of Jiangxi Province,Ganzhou 341000,Jiangxi Province,China)

机构地区：[1]江西理工大学土木与测绘工程学院,江西赣州341000 [2]江西省环境岩土与工程灾害控制重点实验室,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2022年第7期225-229,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ12340)。

摘　　要：岩土参数的不确定性以及外部环境的变化对边坡稳定性有直接影响,为此,进行库岸边坡可靠度分析对水库安全评估具有指导意义。首先针对不确定影响因素选取合适因子水平,采用均匀试验设计法确定神经网络所需实验样本,然后依据边坡参数分布范围,利用极限平衡法和拉丁超立方抽样法求解对应的边坡稳定性系数、失效概率和可靠度指标,最后利用粒子群算法(PSO)优化的径向基函数(RBF)神经网络训练实验样本,建立均质库岸边坡可靠度预测模型,并对比计算结果与网络预测结果。分析结果表明:在均匀试验基础上建立的PSO-RBF神经网络模型的预测精度较高,且优于单纯的RBF神经网络模型,还可节省边坡可靠度分析的时间。对库岸边坡工程稳定性预警和灾害防治有一定参考价值。The uncertainty of geotechnical parameters and the changes of the external environment have a direct impact on the stability of the slope.Therefore,the reliability analysis of the reservoir bank slope is of guiding significance for the safety assessment.First,appropriate levels for uncertain influencing factors are selected and the uniform experimental design method is used to determine the samples required by the neural network.Then,according to the slope parameter distribution range,the limit equilibrium method and LHS are used to solve the corresponding samples.Finally,the RBF neural network optimized by PSO is used to train and test sample and its stability factor,failure probability and reliability index so as to establish the slope reliability prediction model of the homogeneous reservoir bank and compare it with the prediction results of the RBF network.The analysis results show that the PSO-RBF is established on the basis of uniform experiments and have good prediction accuracy,and is further than the RBF,and it can also save time.The research results have certain reference value for the early warning of the stability of the reservoir bank slope engineering and disaster prevention.

关 键 词：库岸边坡 均匀试验 稳定性系数 可靠度预测 PSO-RBF 

分 类 号：TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程]