工业化阶段演进中加工贸易对经济增长集约化水平的非线性效应——基于平滑转移的阈值协整模型检验  

Nonlinear Effects of Processing Trade on Intensive Level of Economic Growth in the Evolution of Industrialization Stage:Threshold Co-integration Model Test Based on Smooth Transition

作　　者：傅晗彧 王晓彤 张少华 FU Han-yu;WANG Xiao-tong;ZHANG Shao-hua

机构地区：[1]香港大学经济与工商管理学院,中国 [2]广州大学经济与统计学院

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2022年第6期58-75,共18页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(16AZd001);广东省自然科学基金项目(2018A0303130174)。

摘　　要：加工贸易的逆“自我选择”效应及税收优惠政策扭曲资源配置可能阻碍经济增长集约化水平提升;但是随工业化阶段的演进,加工贸易通过多条途径促进经济增长集约化水平提升,进而部分抵消加工贸易对经济增长集约化水平的负向作用,即加工贸易对经济增长集约化水平的影响可能发生非线性变化。文章利用我国1981~2017年数据并构建阈值协整模型检验发现:加工贸易对经济增长集约化水平具有负向作用;随工业化阶段演进即第二产业产值与第三产业之比低于某一数值时,加工贸易的负向作用减弱;采用不同方法测度部分变量,加工贸易对经济增长集约化水平均存在非线性效应,实证检验结果是稳健的。上述研究表明,随着工业化阶段演进,加工贸易发展的专业化分工效应、规模经济效应等不断凸显,促进经济增长集约化水平提升,减弱了加工贸易对经济增长集约化水平的负向作用。The adverse self-selection effect of processing trade and the distorted resource allocation of preferential tax policies may hinder the improvement of intensive level of economic growth. However, processing trade promotes the improvement of intensive level of economic growth through multiple channels with the evolution of industrialization stage and then partially offsets the negative effect of processing trade on intensive level of economic growth, which means that the impact of processing trade on intensive level of economic growth may change nonlinearly. Based on China’s data from 1981 to 2017, this paper constructs a threshold co-integration model to conduct the test. The results show that processing trade exerts a negative effect on intensive level of economic growth;with the evolution of industrialization stage, when the ratio of output value of the secondary industry to that of the tertiary industry is lower than a certain value, the negative effect of processing trade is weakened;by using different methods to measure some variables, it is found that processing trade has a significant nonlinear effect on intensive level of economic growth, which indicates that the empirical test results are robust. The above research reveals that with the evolution of industrialization stage, the effect of specialization division of labor and the effect of scale economy of processing trade development are becoming more and more prominent, which improve intensive level of economic growth and weaken the negative effect of processing trade on intensive level of economic growth.

关 键 词：工业化阶段 加工贸易 经济增长集约化 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]