城市和农村校车事故伤害严重程度影响因素对比分析  

Comparative Analysis on Causes of Injury Severities of School Bus Accident in Urban and Rural Areas

作　　者：施颖 潘义勇[1] 吴静婷 SHI Ying;PAN Yiyong;WU Jingting(College of Automobile and Traffic Engineering,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学汽车与交通工程学院,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《物流科技》2022年第8期85-90,共6页Logistics Sci-Tech

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51508280)。

摘　　要：为研究城市和农村校车事故伤害程度致因差异,探寻事故数据中未观测到的异质性,基于混合Logit模型构建校车事故伤害严重程度模型。以校车事故伤害严重程度为因变量,从人、车、路、环境等方面选取多个影响因素作为自变量,运用混合Logit模型构建校车事故伤害严重程度,并进行参数估计。结果表明:城市和农村校车事故伤害严重程度致因有差异。不在学校区域和年龄35~44岁分别对城市和农村校车事故伤害严重程度有异质性影响。安全气囊状态、道路限速值、控制方式、光线条件和不安全驾驶行为对城市和农村校车事故伤害严重程度均有影响,但影响程度不同。男驾驶员与农村死亡受伤事故呈负相关,涉事车辆数为1辆/2辆与城市死亡受伤事故呈负相关,路表湿滑与城市可能伤害事故呈正相关。In order to study the difference of injury severities in school bus accident between urban and rural areas and explore the heterogeneity not observed in accident data,models of injury severities in urban and rural school bus accident are constructed respectively based on the mixed Logit model.The dependent variable are injury severities in school bus accident and multiple independent variables are selected from the aspects of people,road,vehicle,and environment.The mixed Logit model is used to construct the model,and the parameters were estimated.The results show that causes of injury severities in school bus accident are different between urban and rural areas.Being outside the school area and age between 35 and 44 years old have a heterogeneous influence on the severity of school bus accidents in urban and rural areas respectively.Airbag status,speed limit value,control mode,light conditions and unsafe driving behavior have influence on the severity of school bus accidents in urban and rural areas,but the influence degree is different.Male drivers are negatively correlated with injuries and fatal crashes in rural areas.1 or 2 vehicles involved are negatively correlated with injuries and fatal crashes in urban areas.Slippery road surface is positively correlated with possible injury in urban areas.

关 键 词：交通安全 校车事故 城市和农村 伤害严重程度 混合Logit模型 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]