新疆南疆周边高山冰川融化及其未来水资源安全风险  

Melting of Mountain Glacier and Its Risk to Future Water Resources in Southern Xinjiang,China

作　　者：倪明霞 段峥嵘[1] 夏建新[1] NI Mingxia;DUAN Zhengrong;XIA Jianxin(College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China)

机构地区：[1]中央民族大学生命与环境科学学院,北京100081

出　　处：《山地学报》2022年第3期329-342,共14页Mountain Research

基　　金：国家科技重大专项子课题(2017ZX07101)。

摘　　要：高山冰川的季节性融水是中国新疆南疆地区重要的水资源补给。全球变暖使得冰川持续退缩、冰川融水增加,显著影响南疆生态环境和社会经济。当前冰川变化研究仅对南疆少数流域山区的融水径流进行了预测,缺乏对冰川融水峰值的精确预测,不能精确确定流量拐点出现的时间范围,且受限于数据精度,存在模拟结果不准确的情况。本研究应用月尺度的度日模型,估算1961—2019年南疆主要流域的物质平衡和冰川融水径流,并基于研究区范围内各流域的历史气候变化趋势设置情境,预估和分析未来60年各流域内可能的冰川物质平衡和融水径流的变化趋势,预测冰川融水可能出现拐点的时间节点。结果表明:(1)阿克苏河、渭干河和叶尔羌河流域自1961年开始,冰川长期保持物质亏损状态,而和田河和克里雅河流域则在20世纪90年代之前冰川物质正平衡,略有积累,90年代以后物质亏损严重,2000年之后为各流域物质亏损最严重的时期。(2)各流域60年来累积物质平衡分别为-17.5 m、-12.4 m、-14.2 m、-5.0 m和-0.9 m。(3)各流域冰川持续融化,但融水径流增加趋势不一致,预测阿克苏河流域冰川融水在2050—2060年将达顶,叶尔羌河流域冰川融水径流量在2070年后呈现逐步减少的趋势,其他三个流域在2080年之前冰川融水一直稳定增加,但增加趋势逐渐趋于平缓。研究结果有助于指导南疆地区水资源管理与合理利用、有效预防自然灾害。Seasonal meltwater of alpine glaciers is principal water supply in southern Xinjiang,China.Global warming makes glaciers in southern Xinjiang continue to retreat and increase glacier meltwater,inevitably interfering local ecological environment and social economy.Past research on glacier changes merely involved in the estimation of meltwater runoff in the mountainous areas of several basins in southern Xinjiang,but short of exact prediction of the peak values of meltwater of these glaciers.By now,all achieved speculations on the turn points of glacier discharge appear to be recognized by neither in their broad time range nor in accuracy,but simulation outputs undesirable.In this study,a monthly Degree-Day Model was used to estimate the mass balance and meltwater runoff from 1961 to 2019 in five major basins in Southern Xinjiang.Based on historical meteorological records in the study areas,this study analyzed the changes of glacier mass balance,glacier meltwater runoff and its turn point in the next 60 years.Results show that:(1)Glaciers in the Aksu,Weigan,and Yarkant River basin have been at a stage of mass loss since 1961.Glaciers in Hotan and Kriya River basin were in a positive mass balance before the 1990s,with a slight mass accumulation,followed by severe mass loss.All basins turned to be in the stage of severe mass loss after 2000.(2)In the last 60 years,the total glacier mass balance in the basin was-17.5 m,-12.4 m,-14.2 m,-5.0 m,and-0.9 m,respectively.(3)According to our evaluation,although glaciers are inclined to continue to melt,there will be distinct inconsistency between basins for their increasing trend of meltwater runoff.To be specific,glacial meltwater is expected to peak in 2050—2060 in the Aksu River basin;In the Yarkant River basin it should continue to increase until 2070;In the other three basins,they will be in a steady increase before 2080,but with a tendency to increase in a slowly flat manner.This study would aid in the guidance of regional water resource regulation,proper utilization

关 键 词：南疆 度日模型 冰川物质平衡 冰川融水 预测 

分 类 号：P343.6[天文地球—水文科学]