迁出地视角下流动人口的回流意愿与影响因素分析--以四川省调查数据为例  

Analysis of Returning Willingness and Influencing Factors of Migrant Population from the Perspective of Emigration:A Case Study of Sichuan Province,China

作　　者：唐晨珂 刘颖 舒丽琼[1,2] TANG Chenke;LIU Ying;SHU Liqiong(Faculty of Geography Resources Sciences,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu 610068,China;Key Laboratory of Land Resources Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest of Ministry of Education,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu 610068,China)

机构地区：[1]四川师范大学地理与资源科学学院,成都610068 [2]四川师范大学西南土地评价与监测教育部重点实验室,成都610068

出　　处：《山地学报》2022年第3期421-433,共13页Mountain Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41801140);四川省杰出青年科技人才项目(2022JDJQ0015)。

摘　　要：随着国家乡村振兴战略的实施与城镇化加速,流动人口出现回流现象。人口回流具备不同的空间格局,也与内外多种因素有关。以往研究多从省、市尺度考察人口流动,缺乏县域视角,没有分析影响人口回流意愿的外部因素,例如中国西部地区迁出地发展对人口回流产生的影响。四川省是西部地区人口流出大省,近年来出现的人口回流现象具有典型性。本文以2017年中国流动人口的动态监测调查数据为基础,运用空间自相关分析、回归分析对四川省县域人口回流的空间分异与影响因素进行探讨。研究发现:(1)四川省流动人口的回流意愿整体不高,在空间上呈现出东高西低的特点,区县回流意愿的高低与返乡创业政策的数量存在相关性;县域层面上城市区域的流动人口回流意愿低于非城市区域,县域层面以下农村成为流动人口回流的首选地区;经济条件和地形条件较好的区域人口回流意愿较强。(2)流动人口的回流意愿存在正向空间自相关性,低值区县聚集在四川省西部,而高值区县集中在四川省中部和东部。(3)迁出地区县的第一产业增加值对人口回流具有抑制作用,而迁出地区县的第三产业增加值及迁出地的社会因素、土地因素对人口回流具有促进作用。本研究对引导人口回流、促进回流城镇化具有重要意义。With the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy and the acceleration of urbanization, the phenomenon of floating population return appears. Population return has different spatial patterns, which are related to internal and external factors. Past studies were mostly conducted at the provincial and municipal scales, lacking a county perspective. The studies did not consider the external factors that affect the willingness of population return, for example, the impact of the development of emigration areas in western of China. Sichuan province has a large population outflow, and the phenomenon of population return in recent years is typical. Based on data from China’s migrant population dynamic survey in 2017, this study used spatial autocorrelation analysis and regression analysis to explore the spatial differentiation and influencing factors at the county level in Sichuan province.Results conclude that:(1)In Sichuan province, return willingness is relatively low;it is high in eastern and low in western. The return willingness of counties is correlated with the number of supportive policies for the population’s return. At county level, the return willingness in urban areas was lower than in non-urban areas. At town and village level, the countryside is the first choice for the floating population’s return. The return willingness was stronger in regions with better economic and topographic conditions.(2)At county level, the return willingness were positive spatial autocorrelated. The low-value area were concentrated in the west, whereas the high-value areas were concentrated in the center and east.(3)The added value of the primary industry in emigration counties had a negative influence on the return willingness;the added value of the tertiary industry combined with social factors and land factors of emigration areas had a positive influence on return willingness. This study is of great significance in guiding population return and promoting new urbanization.

关 键 词：人口回流 空间分异 影响因素 

分 类 号：K901.3[历史地理—人文地理学]