美欧俄石油供应贸易网络对中国石油进口效率的影响研究  

The Impact of Oil Supply and Trade Network of the US-OPEC-Russia on China’s Oil Import Efficiency

作　　者：马远 张瑞 MA Yuan;ZHANG Rui(School of International Economics and Trade, Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics, Urumqi 830012, China;School of Economics, Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics, Urumqi 830012, China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学国际经贸学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012 [2]新疆财经大学经济学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《大连理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第4期8-19,共12页Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“‘一带一路’建设对中国天然气贸易格局及国内价格形成机制影响研究”(20BGL289)。

摘　　要：美国、欧佩克、俄罗斯三大石油供应主体间的博弈从未间断,由此形成的石油供应贸易网络势必影响中国石油进口效率。文章运用复杂网络分析方法结合随机前沿引力模型,探究美欧俄石油供应贸易网络结构特征及其对中国石油进口贸易效率的影响。研究表明:美欧俄石油供应贸易网络社区聚类现象明显,以沙特阿拉伯为首的欧佩克在美欧俄石油供应贸易网络中的影响力有所减弱;美欧俄石油供应贸易网络拓扑结构特征、经济规模、人口数量及海运距离等因素均对中国石油进口贸易效率产生显著影响,其中较高的入接近中心性和出接近中心性能够有效削弱中国石油进口的贸易阻力,但较高的入度中心性和中介中心性增大了中国石油进口的外在不可控贸易壁垒;中国与美欧俄石油进口贸易整体效率较低,但贸易拓展空间较大。The game between the three major oil suppliers of the United States,OPEC,and Russia has never stopped.The resulting oil supply and trade network will inevitably affect the efficiency of China’s oil import.This article uses a complex network analysis method in conjunction with a stochastic frontier gravity model to explore the characteristics of the US-OPEC-Russia oil supply trade networks and their impact on the efficiency of China’s oil import trade.Research shows that clustering is an obvious feature of the US-OPEC-Russia oil supply and trade network communities.OPEC led by Saudi Arabia play a weaker role in the U.S.,Europe and Russia oil supply and trade network;the topological economic scale,population,and shipping distance of the U.S.,European and Russian oil supply and trade network all have a significant impact on the efficiency of China’s oil import trade.Among them,the higher inflow and outflow proximity can effectively reduce the trade resistance to China’s oil imports,but the higher inflow centrality and the intermediary centrality have increased the external uncontrollable trade barriers against China’s oil imports;the overall efficiency of China’s oil import trade with the United States,OPEC and Russia is relatively low,but there is a great room for trade expansion.

关 键 词：美国、欧佩克、俄罗斯石油供应贸易网络 中国石油进口 随机前沿引力模型 贸易效率 贸易潜力 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]