技术创新与新能源汽车销量:基于“创新引致需求理论”的经验检验  

Technological Innovation and Sales of New Energy Vehicles——An Empirical Test Based on the Theory of“Innovation-driven Demand”

作　　者：李晓敏[1] 刘毅然 杨娇娇 LI Xiaomin;LIU Yiran;YANG Jiaojiao(School of Economics, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China;School of Economics, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)

机构地区：[1]河南大学经济学院,河南开封475004 [2]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《大连理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第4期31-41,共11页Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“绿色转型背景下新能源汽车发展的阻滞与突破路径研究”(21FJYB014)。

摘　　要：发展新能源汽车是我国从汽车大国迈向汽车强国的必由之路,是应对气候变化、推动绿色发展的战略举措。利用中国2012年1月~2019年12月新能源汽车行业的销量和专利申请数量月度数据,采用时间序列协整模型和误差修正模型,考察了技术创新对于新能源汽车销量的影响,研究发现:2012~2019年间,技术创新显著提升了新能源汽车销量,上一期有效专利申请数量每增加1%,当期新能源汽车的销量就会增加0.698%,从经验上再次证实了“创新引致需求理论”;电池、电驱与电控3类技术的进步均促进了新能源汽车销量的增长,其中电池技术的改进对于提高新能源汽车销量的作用最大,电控技术次之,电驱动技术最小;与混合动力汽车销量相比,技术创新对于提升纯电动汽车销量的作用更为明显。To develop new energy vehicles is the way to move from a large automotive country to a strong automotive country.It is also a strategic initiative to cope with climate change and promote green development.Using monthly data of sales volume and the number of patent applications in China’s new energy vehicle industry from January 2012 to December 2019,this paper examines the impact of technological innovation on the sales of new energy vehicles using a time series co-integration model and an error correction model,the study finds that from 2012 to 2019,technological innovation has significantly increased the sales of new energy vehicles.For every 1%increase in the number of valid patent applications in the previous period,the sales of NEVs in the current period will increase by 0.698%,empirically confirming the theory of“innovation driven demand”again.The research also discovers that the improvement of battery technology plays the most important role in increasing the sales of new energy vehicles,followed by electronic control technology and electric drive technology.We have also found that compared with the sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle(PHEV),technological innovation plays a greater role in promoting the sales of battery electric vehicle(BEV).

关 键 词：技术创新 新能源汽车 技术细分 车型细分 

分 类 号：F423[经济管理—产业经济]