新疆地区草原革蜱MaxEnt分布预测分析  

MaxEnt distribution prediction of Dermacentor nuttalli in Xinjiang region of China

作　　者：胡政香 诺明达来 余权威 呼尔查[2,3,4] HU Zhengxiang;NUO Mingdalai;YU Quanwei;HU Ercha(College of Grassland Science,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China;College of Veterinary Medicine,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China;College of Animal Science,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China;Xinjiang Agricultural University Post-doctoral Station of Veterinary Medicine,Urumqi 830052,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学草业学院,乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆农业大学动物医学学院,乌鲁木齐830052 [3]新疆农业大学动物科学学院,乌鲁木齐830052 [4]新疆农业大学兽医学博士后流动站,乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《生态科学》2022年第4期92-101,共10页Ecological Science

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金面上项目(2022D01A65);新疆农业大学“天池博士计划”;新疆农业大学动物医学学院大学生创新项目。

摘　　要：草原革蜱是新疆地区常见的蜱种之一。该蜱能够携带和传播多种人畜共患病原体。为了分析该蜱在新疆的潜在分布模式,本次预测分布采用了生物气候数据变量数据,以及草原革蜱GPS出现位点的元数据,其中包含48个甄选GPS位点,用以进行MaxEnt分布预测分析和响应曲线分析。预测分布结果显示,草原革蜱主要分布在新疆北部。最适宜生存的区域在准噶尔盆地西缘、天山北坡、伊犁河谷地区、塔城地区、天山南坡以及巴音布鲁克草原。模型的AUC值通过10折交叉验证得出,最终输出的MaxEnt模型的平均AUC值为0.856±0.044(SD),表明该模型较为可靠。响应曲线及贡献率结果表明,6个生物气候变量中,最干月份降水量(Bio14)、等温性(Bio03)和年平均气温(Bio02)对模型的贡献率总计达到了88.5%,表明草原革蜱较适宜生存的区域分布在降水量和年均气温较高的区域。本次分布预测模型是基于MaxEnt算法得出的,首个用于分析新疆地区草原革蜱分布的模型。该MaxEnt预测分布模型将有助于新疆地区蜱类种群分布研究、蜱传病原体检测以及蜱源性疾病的风险评估分析。Dermacentor nuttalli is one of the common tick species in Xinjiang,China.The tick species is capable of carrying and transmitting a variety of zoonotic pathogens.To predict the potential distribution of D.nuttalli in Xinjiang,MaxEnt prediction was performed with bioclimate variables and 48 curated GPS localities extracted from a metadata containing tick occurrence records.The predicted distribution results indicated that the main distribution area of D.nuttalli was located in northern Xinjiang.The most suitable areas were distributed in the western margin of Junggar Basin,north slope of Tianshan Mountain,Yili River Valley,Tacheng area,south slope of Tianshan Mountain and Bayinbulak grassland.The AUC value was obtained by 10-fold cross-validation,and the final output model showed a mean AUC of 0.856±0.044(SD)indicating that the model was reliable.The response curve and contribution rate of the six bioclimatic variables revealed that the precipitation of the driest month(Bio14),isothermality(Bio03)and mean diurnal range(Bio02)accounted for up to 88.5%of the model contribution,indicating that the regions with high precipitation and cool air temperature were very suitable for this tick species in Xinjiang.In total,this distribution prediction model is based on MaxEnt algorithm,which is the first model used to analyze the distribution of D.nuttalli in Xinjiang region.The MaxEnt predictive distribution model will be helpful in the study of tick population distribution,tick-borne pathogen detection and risk assessment of tick-borne diseases in Xinjiang.

关 键 词：草原革蜱 MAXENT 分布预测 新疆 巴音郭楞地区 

分 类 号：S855391[农业科学—临床兽医学]