创新、产能变动与中国经济的周期性波动--基于扩展RBC模型的研究  

Innovation,Capacity Change and Cyclical Fluctuation of China's Economy:Research based on Extended RBC Model

作　　者：冯梦黎 FENG Meng-li(Marxist College,Party School of Sichuan Provincial Party Committee of the C.P.C.,Sichuan Institute of Administration,Chengdu Sichuan 610071,China)

机构地区：[1]中共四川省委党校四川行政学院马克思主义学院,四川成都610071

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2022年第7期53-59,共7页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

摘　　要：文章基于扩展的RBC模型,分析创新、产能变动等对中国经济周期运行和部分重要经济变量的影响。结果显示,模型可以解释82.51%的产出波动、89.00%的投资波动、67.52%的资本存量波动和65.41%的消费波动,总体解释力较好;创新和产能利用率的提升对中国经济的发展有正面的促进作用,虽然创新会产生滞后的市场性产能过剩,但会随着新一轮创新自行化解;政策性补贴却加重了非市场性产能过剩的产生,特别是在新冠肺炎疫情下这类产能过剩会对经济产生较大的负面影响。基于此,文章提出针对性的政策建议。Based on the extended RBC model,this paper discusses the impact of innovation and capacity change on China's econo-mic cycle operation and some important economic variables.The results show that the model can explain 82.51%of output fluctuation,89.00%of investment fluctuation,67.52%of capital stock fluctuation and 65.41%of consumption fluctuation,and the overall explanatory power is good;Innovation and the improvement of capacity utilization have a positive role in promoting China's economic development,although innovation will produce lagging market overcapacity,it will resolve itself with a new round of innovation;However,policy subsi-dies have aggravated the generation of non market overcapacity,which will have a greater negative impact on the economy,especially in the case of the epidemic.Based on this,the paper puts forward targeted policy recommendations.

关 键 词：技术创新 制度创新 产能变动 经济周期 

分 类 号：F012[经济管理—政治经济学]