黄河流域乡镇人口——经济增长与收缩格局及影响因素  

Spatial pattern and influencing factors of small town population and economic growth and contraction in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：张梦梦 张丽君[1] 秦耀辰[1,2] 杨小琬 田梦男 刘秀芳 ZHANG Mengmeng;ZHANG Lijun;QIN Yaochen;YANG Xiaowan;TIAN Mengnan;LIU Xiufang(College of Geography and Environmental Science,Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,Henan,China;Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development&Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization,Henan Province and Ministry of Education,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,Henan,China)

机构地区：[1]河南大学地理与环境学院,黄河中下游数字地理技术教育部重点实验室,河南开封475004 [2]河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心暨黄河文明省部共建协同创新中心,河南开封475004

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2022年第6期999-1011,共13页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42071294,42171295);河南省优秀青年科学基金项目(222300420030);河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2020BJJ019);河南省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目(2021-ZDJH-057)。

摘　　要：增长与收缩是区域转型发展过程中的世界性议题,然而其判别标准与驱动机制研究还比较薄弱。因而,论文构建人口、经济增长与收缩的判别标准和理论(驱动力—结果—响应)分析框架,利用统计数据与NPP/VIIRS系列遥感数据,借助ArcGIS可视化分析工具和广义加性模型探究黄河流域5268个乡镇增长与收缩的格局及影响因素。结果发现:黄河流域乡镇人口、经济增长与收缩并存,人口收缩乡镇主要集中在“几字湾”地区,经济收缩乡镇主要集中在上、中游地区,关中、中原以及山东半岛城市群是人口—经济增长的核心区域。乡镇增长与收缩可分为持续增长型(6.4%)、转型增长型(5.8%)、缓慢增长型(42.4%)与持续收缩型(45.4%)4种,增长型乡镇主要分布在下游地区,收缩型乡镇主要分布在上、中游地区,其中技术密集型、劳动密集型城市的乡镇增长态势明显,资源型城市收缩型乡镇所占比重较大。自然条件的多个阈值表明平原地区、高海拔地区的乡镇均存在增长优势,规模经济与交通区位整体对乡镇增长具有促进作用,但涓滴效应与外部性会造成乡镇的收缩。不同增长与收缩类型的乡镇应当探索因地制宜的增长与转型路径。The growth and contraction of small towns have attracted great attention in the process of regional transformation. However, the criteria for distinguishing growth and contraction of small towns lack clarity, and the research on transformation mechanism is relatively limited. Therefore, this study proposed a criterion for identifying the types of growth and contraction for small towns based on statistical data and NPP/VIIRS series remote sensing data. It established a heuristic analytical framework to analyze the driving forces, results, and responses for demographic and economic transitions in 5268 small towns in the Yellow River Basin. The results show that growth and contraction of population and economy coexist for small towns. Small towns with population reduction are mainly concentrated in the "Jiziwan" areas, while small towns with economic contraction are mainly located in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin. The Guanzhong,Zhongyuan, and Shandong Peninsula urban agglomerations are the core areas with population and economic growth. The small towns can be divided into four types according to their population and economic change:sustained growth(6.4%), transitional growth(5.8%), slow growth(42.4%), and sustained contraction(45.4%).The small towns in technology-intensive and labor-intensive cities showed obvious growth trend, while contracting small towns accounted for a large proportion of resource-oriented cities. Multiple thresholds of natural conditions indicate that small towns in both plain and high-altitude areas have growth advantages. Scale economies and location advantage can promote the growth of small towns as a whole, but trickle-down effect and externality will cause the contraction of some small towns. Hence, small towns with different growth and contraction types should explore various transformation paths according to the local conditions.

关 键 词：增长与收缩 NPP/VIIRS数据 广义加性模型 黄河流域 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F127