中国迁移流动人口的统计定义——人口普查视角下的分析  

Statistical Definitions of Migration in China:Analysison the Census Perspective

作　　者：周皓[1] Zhou Hao

机构地区：[1]北京大学社会学系

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2022年第3期17-30,126,共15页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国流动人口调查的比较研究”(编号:19BRK039)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：厘清概念、明晰定义有助于正确认识普查中有关人口迁移流动的数据。文章在强调明确登记对象和完备登记信息的基础上,着重讨论户口标准中流动时间及其可能带来的问题、迁移人口的重要性及无法识别问题、5年前常住地样本的混合属性问题。文章认为:(1)七普登记的离开户口登记地时间使登记对象变成一次“新”的不同于以往3种统计口径的迁移流动,可能导致信息陈旧、低估城—城流动比例、无法估计小区域的新增流动人口等问题,普查题项最好能增加离开户口登记地后的流入地及最近一次迁移流动时间。(2)忽略迁移人口将低估中国人口迁移流动的规模和活跃程度。中国情境下的研究应重视区分人口迁移与人口流动两个概念,并从普查题项设计、统计定义到数据分析等全方位加强对中国迁移人口的调查与研究。(3)5年前常住地样本是现有流动人口、返迁人口和迁移人口等多种属性人口组成的混合体;研究时应注意混合样本属性并进行分别讨论。文章建议加强流出地视角的研究,充分开发出生地信息,并进一步开放普查数据的使用。Clarifying the concepts and definitions is conducive to understanding census data on migration. With emphasis on identifying registrants and collecting complete registration information, this paper focuses on the migration time and related issues under the criteria of the household registration, the importance and unidentified migrants with the change of household registration, and the mixed attributes of the samples of the residence at five years past. The paper argues firstly that the recorded time of leaving the household registration place in the Seventh Census makes the objects become a“new”migration behavior, which is different from the previous three statistical measures, resulting in problems such as outdated information, underestimating the urban-urban migration ratio, and impossibility to estimate the new floating population in provincial or lower levels. It is better to include the inflow place after leaving the registered location and the time of the latest migration. Secondly, ignoring the migration with change of household registration place underestimates the scale and activity of migration in China. We should pay attention to both migrants with this change and floating population under the Chinese context and strengthen the investigation and research on migration from the questionnaire design of census, statistical definitions to data analysis. Finally, the sample of residence at five years past was a mixture of the floating population, returning migrants and migrants with the change of household registration place. The mixture attributions of the sample need to be paid more attention in research. This paper presents several suggestions, including enforcing the research from the perspective of outflow place, conducting in-depth analyses on birth place information, and further opening the use of census data.

关 键 词：人口普查 迁移 流动 统计定义 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]