中国农村大龄未婚男性的年龄界定研究  

The Measurement of Age of Involuntary Bachelors in Rural China

作　　者：果臻 杨柳清 李树茁[2] Guo Zhen

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学社会学院 [2]西安交通大学人口与发展研究所

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2022年第3期46-58,127,共14页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：华中科技大学2022年人文社科自主创新重大交叉项目“中国人口性别失衡的态势、社会风险与治理——基于第七次全国人口普查数据”(编号:2022WKZDJC001)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：年龄界定是中国农村大龄未婚男性研究中的基础性问题。文章使用第六次与第七次全国人口普查数据构建多递减初婚表,提出基于未婚男性终身结婚期待率的农村大龄未婚男性年龄界定方法。研究表明:(1)当前,农村男性婚姻挤压程度进一步加剧,农村大龄未婚男性的年龄界定应具有动态性。(2)农村未婚男性的成婚可能性是进行农村大龄未婚男性年龄界定的关键。终身结婚期待率能综合反映未婚男性成婚的可能性,会随着年龄的增加而降低。(3)根据研究需要选择终身结婚期待率标准水平,然后确定其在初婚表中对应的年龄,该年龄及以上的未婚男性可被认定为农村大龄未婚男性。最后,文章基于第七次全国人口普查数据给出农村大龄未婚男性年龄界定标准,并计算不同年龄界定所对应的农村大龄未婚男性群体规模。Howtomeasure the age of the involuntary bachelors in rural China is a fundamental issue in the research on this group.This paper uses the data from the Sixth and Seventh Census to construct male net nuptiality table and proposes a method to measure the age of the involuntary bachelors in rural China based on the percentage of marriages for single survivors,The study shows that China's mariage squeeze of male in rural areas has become more severe,and the age measurement of the involuntary bachelors in rural China should be adjusted accordingly.The likelihood of mariage for rural unmarried male is a key factor in conducting age measurement of rural involuntary bachelors The percentage of marriages for single survivors reflects the likelihood of unmaried male to get married and decreases with age.Researchers can choose thestandard level of percentage of marriages for single survivors according to research needs and determine the age corresponding to the standard level in the net nuptiality table.Unmaried male of that ageand above canbeconsidered as rural involuntary bachelors.Finally,thispaper haspresented thelatestcriteriafor measuring theageof involuntary bachelors in rural China based on the data from the Seventh Census and calculated thenumber ofthe involuntary bachelors in rural China corresponding to different age measurements.

关 键 词：农村大龄未婚男性 年龄界定 多递减初婚表 终身结婚期待率 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] D669.1[政治法律—政治学]