马尔科夫链在溧阳市降水量预测中的应用  

Application of Markov chain in precipitation prediction and analysis of Liyang City

作　　者：林小明 华晨[2] 胡尊乐 李丹[2] 闫浩[2] 纪小敏 LIN Xiaoming;HUA Chen;HU Zunle;LI Dan;YAN Hao;JI Xiaomin(Liyang Water Resources Bureau,Liyang 213300,China;Changzhou Branch of Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau,Changzhou 213022,China;Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]溧阳市水利局,江苏常州213300 [2]江苏省水文水资源勘测局常州分局,江苏常州213022 [3]江苏省水文水资源勘测局,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《江苏水利》2022年第7期41-45,共5页Jiangsu Water Resources

摘　　要：在采用均方差分级法对溧阳市1951—2020年的降水量进行分级的基础上,运用马尔科夫链理论和模糊集理论,建立加权马尔科夫链降水量预测模型,并运用于溧阳市年降水量和丰枯水重现期的预测,预测结果良好,为区域水旱灾害防御、水资源优化配置、河湖生态保护提供了技术支撑。Based on the classification of the precipitation in Liyang City from 1951 to 2020 using the mean square error classification method,using Markov chain theory and fuzzy set theory,a weighted Markov chain precipitation prediction model is established and applied to Liyang City Prediction of annual precipitation and return period of high and low water.The prediction results are good,providing technical support for regional flood and drought disaster prevention,optimal allocation of water resources,and ecological protection of rivers and lakes.

关 键 词：马尔科夫链 模糊集理论 降水量 预测 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]