考虑源荷不确定性和相关性的关键线路辨识  

Critical Line Identification Considering Uncertainties in Source and Load and the Corresponding Correlation

作　　者：王洪涛 邹斌[2] WANG Hongtao;ZOU Bin(College of Information and Mechanical&Electrical Engineering,Ningde Normal University,Ningde 352100,China;School of Mechatronic Engineering and Automation,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China)

机构地区：[1]宁德师范学院信息与机电工程学院,宁德352100 [2]上海大学机电工程与自动化学院,上海200444

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2022年第7期88-97,共10页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2019J01845)。

摘　　要：为解决高比例可再生能源接入电力系统后,现有的关键线路辨识方法难以考虑源荷不确定情况下的关键线路辨识的问题,提出了新的关键线路辨识方法。首先,以贝叶斯网络BN(Bayesian network)为基础,建立源荷概率模型。然后,以线路概率潮流介数为指标,利用概率最优潮流的计算结果,对电源-负荷节点对之间的功率传输进行顺流潮流追踪,计算每条线路的概率潮流介数,以概率潮流介数为指标辨识关键线路。最后,以IEEE 39节点系统为算例,考虑源荷的不确定性和相关性,对关键线路进行辨识。仿真结果表明,所提方法较为全面地考虑了源荷不确定性和相关性,得到的关键线路集与参考标准的关键线路集相同,验证了所提方法的有效性。When high-proportion renewable energy is connected to power system,the existing critical line identification method is difficult to play its role under uncertainties in source and load.To solve this problem,a novel critical line identification method is proposed.First,based on Bayesian network(BN),a source-load probability model is estab⁃lished.Then,the probabilistic power flow betweenness of lines is taken as an index.The calculation results of probabi⁃listic optimal power flow are used to track the downstream power flow of power transmission between source-load node pairs,and the probabilistic power flow betweenness of each line is calculated,which is used as the index to identify the critical line.Finally,an IEEE 39-node system is taken as an example to identify the critical line considering the uncer⁃tainties and correlation of source and load.Simulation results show that the proposed method fully considers the uncer⁃tainties and correlation of source and load,and the obtained critical line set is the same as that of the reference stan⁃dard,which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：关键线路辨识 源荷不确定性 源荷相关性 概率潮流介数 贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：TM74[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]