基于正外部性的区域轨道交通政府补贴分担方法  

Government Subsidy Sharing Method for Regional Rail Transit Based on Positive Externality

作　　者：沙茜 冯旭杰[1,2] 刘书浩 刘从岗[1,2] 杜云柯 SHA Xi;FENG Xu-jie;LIU Shu-hao;LIU Cong-gang;DU Yun-ke(China Academy of Transportation Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Research and Development Center of Transport Industry of Technologies&Equipments of Urban Rail Safety Management,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部科学研究院,北京100029 [2]城市轨道交通运营安全管理技术及装备交通运输行业研发中心,北京100029

出　　处：《交通运输研究》2022年第3期166-175,共10页Transport Research

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(20204809)。

摘　　要：为科学测算沿线各城市对区域轨道交通政府补贴的分担比例,根据轨道交通对当地经济社会发展带来的正外部性,提出了基础规模、客流规模、社会经济规模、社会效益4个方面共9个政府补贴分担比例影响因素。采用层次分析法,提出了基于正外部性的区域轨道交通政府补贴分担比例测算模型。以华东某城市群轨道交通为例,测算了沿线A,B,C三座城市的政府补贴分担比例。测算结果表明:通过该方法,A,B,C市在运营初期的政府补贴分担比例分别为33.40%,40.35%,26.25%,远期分担比例分别为36.51%,42.49%,21.00%。通过场景演算,分析了客流规模、社会经济规模变化对政府补贴分担比例的影响,验证了测算模型对于不同场景的适应性。In order to scientifically calculate the sharing proportion of regional rail transit government subsidies by cities along the line,according to the positive externalities brought by rail transit to local economic and social development,9 factors influencing subsidy distribution ratios in four aspects were put forward in this paper,including basic scale,passenger flow scale,socio-economic scale and social benefits.Using Analytic Hierarchy Process,a calculation method of subsidy sharing proportion for regional rail tran-sit based on positive externality was proposed.Taking the rail transit of an urban agglomeration in East China as an example,the subsidy sharing proportion of cities A,B and C along the line was calculated.The results show that through the calculation method in this paper,the subsidy sharing proportion of cities A,B and C in the initial stage of operation is 33.40%,40.35%and 26.25%respectively,and the long-term sharing proportion is 36.51%,42.49%and 21.00%respectively.Through scenario calculus analysis,the impact of changes in passenger flow scale and socio-economic scale on the sharing proportion of subsidy is deduced.The adaptability of the calculation method in different scenarios is verified.

关 键 词：城市群 轨道交通 层次分析法 政府补贴 正外部性 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]