4种配对方法在海南秋季雷达定量估测降水中的效果对比  

Comparative experiment of several quantitative precipitation estimation techniques based on doppler radar over the Hainan Island during autumn

作　　者：董凌宇 林晓斌[1,2] 翁小芳 DONG Lingyu;LIN Xiaobin;WENG Xiaofang(Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province,Haikou,China;Hainan Meteorological Observatory,,Haikou,China)

机构地区：[1]海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海口570203 [2]海南省气象台,海口570203

出　　处：《热带生物学报》2022年第4期358-366,共9页Journal of Tropical Biology

基　　金：海南省气象局科研项目(hnqxSJ202103)。

摘　　要：为了获得更稳定、更精确的海南秋季暴雨定量降水估测产品,利用2017—2018年9—11月海口多普勒雷达体扫复合仰角资料和自动气象雨量计资料,采用传统配对法、概率配对法、窗口概率配对法和窗口相关配对法,分别得到不同区域的气候Z-R关系,并对小时雨强和面雨量估测降水误差进行对比分析。结果表明,4种配对法均存在对弱降水事件估测偏大,强降水事件估测偏小的倾向;估测降水的效果随雷达探测距离的增大而下降;PMM法优于其他3种方法,小时雨强的平均绝对误差在4 mm·h−1以下,面雨量偏差最低仅为2.1%。The Haikou Doppler radar volume scan composite elevation data and rainfall data from automatic meteorological rain gauges from Hainan Island collected from September to November in 2017—2018 was used to develop radar reflectivity Z and gauge rainfall R relationships(Z-R relationship)in various areas of Hainan Island for quantitative precipitation estimation by four matching methods:traditional matching method(TMM),probability matching method(PMM),window probability matching method(WPMM)and window correlation matching method(WCMM).And the errors of the four matching methods in hourly rainfall intensity and areal rainfall estimation were compared and analyzed.The results show that the four matching methods tend to overestimate the low rainfall events and underestimate the high rainfall events.The effect of rainfall estimation decreases with the increase of radar distance.PMM provides better result in estimating the Z-R relationships and much higher accuracy in quantitative estimation of precipitation than the other three matching methods.The mean absolute error of PMM in hourly rainfall intensity is less than 4 mm·h−1,and the minimum deviation of areal rainfall is only 2.1%.

关 键 词：降水估测 概率配对法 窗口概率配对法 窗口相关配对法 

分 类 号：P413[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]